Hurricane Erin has weakened to a Category 3 storm after rapidly intensifying to a powerful Category 5 overnight Friday into Saturday. The storm is currently located 115 miles north-northeast of Grand Turk Island.
The hurricane is moving west-northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph and higher gusts. Forecasters expect some fluctuations in intensity over the next day or two.
On its current track, Erin's core is expected to pass east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday, before gradually turning north on Monday and Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds reach out to 230 miles.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Southeast Bahamas, indicating tropical storm conditions are possible within 24 hours.
The outer bands of Erin will continue producing heavy rainfall across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, with expected totals of 3 to 6 inches and isolated amounts reaching 8 inches. This creates potential for flash flooding, urban flooding, landslides, and mudslides in these areas.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight and are possible in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts reaching tropical storm force could affect portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.
Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle parts of the week, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Residents along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts, as well as in Bermuda, should monitor Erin's progress as there is risk of strong winds from the outer rain bands during the middle of the week.
It is UNLIKELY that SWFL will experience negative impacts from Erin.
SWFL may even see lower rain chances mid to late week as drier air filters in on its backside into the area.
As we approach the peak of hurricane season, now is the time to ensure preparedness plans are in place.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic...
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands shows a 50% chance of gradual development later this week as it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
