Tropical Storm Erin formed just west of the Cabo Verde Islands around 11am today.
Erin is moving toward the west near 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days.
There is no immediate threat to land; however, the intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky. After 48 hours, however, sea surface temperatures start to gradually increase and should allow the local environment of Erin to moisten up. Thus, the rate of intensification will likely increase in the second half of the forecast period.
By Saturday, the hurricane-regional models (e.g., HWRF/HAFS), and statistical-dynamical aids (EC-SHIPS/LGEM) show Erin becoming a major hurricane, and that will be explicitly forecast at the end of the period.
Based upon the current long-range models, this does NOT pose a direct threat to SWFL.
Be wary of any website that posts hurricane models beyond 7-days as they're not dependable, and tend to undergo convective feedback.
