CAPE CORAL, Fla. — Any reduction in hurricane forecast projections is welcome news for us in Southwest Florida as we navigate this season. Colorado State University has slightly reduced their 2024 hurricane season forecast in their July update.
CSU forecasters initially predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes in their April forecast, which remained unchanged in June. However, on Wednesday, they slightly lowered these numbers, to 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
"The main reason for slight reduction, is very strong Caribbean wind shear through June, and likely projected strong wind shear through the rest of July," said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU Senior Research Scientist.
Wind shear plays a crucial role in tropical development by disrupting tropical systems or preventing them from forming altogether.
While strong wind shear is expected to continue, Fox 4 Meteorologist Andrew Shipley spoke with Dr. Klotzbach who believes it will weaken as hurricane season progresses and we trend closer to a La Nina weather pattern.
"We do think there is somewhat of a potential. Maybe not all the way to La Nina, but more back to the cool side of neutral. If we are on the cool side of neutral, relative to warm side of neutral, that does tend favor somewhat lower shear," Dr. Klotzbach said.
Ocean temperatures also significantly impact tropical development.
"The Atlantic is running a little bit warmer than normal, but thankfully a lot less warm than it was last year at this time," Dr. Klotzbach said.
Despite these important variables, Dr. Klotzbach emphasized there's still considerable uncertainty about this hurricane season.
"The season really doesn't have the strong signals that we had last year. We knew we were going to have La Nina and the Atlantic was near record warm. But obviously, even last year was a hyperactive season but I think it took a lot of people by surprise in how it played out," Dr. Klotzbach said.
With three named storms already this season, CSU is now forecasting only 13 more storms. However, people in Southwest Florida should remember that it only takes one storm to create significant impacts in our community.
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