The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave designated as Invest 98L as it moves through the Caribbean, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to island communities while forecasters assess its potential for development.
The tropical wave is currently positioned near the Windward Islands and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue through Monday morning across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Development of the system is expected to be limited over the next day or two due to its fast forward motion, which is preventing it from developing a low-level center. However, the system is forecast to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could become more conducive for development.
A tropical depression could form over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion of this week.
The formation chance through 48 hours remains low at 10 percent, while the formation chance through seven days is medium at 60 percent.
Computer forecasting models are showing disagreement on the system's future path and intensity. The American GFS model projects rapid strengthening of the storm with a curve over Hispaniola, while the European model shows a weaker system in the short term, pushing it closer to the Yucatan Peninsula.
The area of the Caribbean off the Yucatan Peninsula has the greatest potential to tap into very high ocean heat content, which serves as fuel for tropical systems to develop. This enhanced ocean heat is largely due to no tropical systems occurring in the Caribbean at all this season.
While the system requires close monitoring, any potential impacts to Southwest Florida remain seven to 10 days away. The situation warrants attention but not immediate concern at this time.
If the system develops into a named storm, it will be called Melissa. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
