Humberto officially formed at 5 p.m. on Wednesday. It is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph and is expected to slow down tomorrow and Friday.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 45 mph with higher gusts. The storm is expected to become a hurricane on Friday and further intensify to a Cat. 3 Major Hurricane over the weekend.
Global models suggest that there will be some relaxation in westerly vertical wind shear over Humberto in the coming days. This, along with very warm ocean waters and a moist mid-level air mass, should lead to strengthening. The system will probably become a hurricane in a couple of days, and then strengthen into a major hurricane.
The storm will not pose a threat to Florida.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS....
HURRICANE GABRIELLE
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Azores, where hurricane conditions are expected Thursday night into early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are likely by Thursday evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so. Swells from Gabrielle will begin reaching the Azores on Thursday. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
NEW DEPRESSION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
This wave is expected to move west-northwestward spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through early tomorrow. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic.
A tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas late this week. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. The wave has a medium chance of a becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
