The National Hurricane Center has started issued advisories on Tropical Depression #7 which will likely become Gabrielle later today or tomorrow.
The center of Tropical Depression Seven is located nearly 1,200 miles from the Leeward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mp. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight.
The other area highlighted in yellow is a tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa that is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low near 10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days is low at 20 percent.
September 10th marked the peak of hurricane season. But, conditions have been abnormally quiet since August 28, when Tropical Storm Fernand dissipated over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
The last time we didn't have an active storm between August 29-September 16 was in 1992, 33 years ago!
The reason behind the quiet conditions? Strong wind shear over the Atlantic. Strong winds above us help to rip apart storms. That was the main factor behind why Invest 91L, an area that had a high chance of development on September 4th fizzled by the 6th. That wind shear, however, is expected to weaken, allowing more development to take place.
