UPDATE WEDNESDAY, JULY 2, 2025:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts slowly. The National Hurricane Center currently has 40% chance of tropical developement.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across the Southeast, including Southwest Florida. The Weather Prediction Center has placed our area in a threat for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday, July 2,Thursday, July 3 and Friday, July 4.
If and where an area of low pressure develops will determine how much rainfall SWFL receives and how long it may affect the area.
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TUESDAY, JULY 1, 2025:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts slowly.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK: Heavy rain will be a possibility on Friday, July 4th. This, obviously, could impact some holiday plans. Where the low develops in association with a decaying front in N FL will determine how much rain we see in SWFL and its impacts. Stay tuned! #flwx pic.twitter.com/b1sbLpT4Xh
— Katie Walls, CCM, CBM (@KatieWallsTV) July 1, 2025
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across the Southeast, including Southwest Florida. The Weather Prediction Center has placed our area in a threat for Excessive Rainfall on Thursday, July 3 and Friday, July 4.
Here are snapshots of the European model's forecast, showing rainfall possibilities at 8 a.m., 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. on Friday, July 4.
If and where an area of low pressure develops will determine how much rainfall SWFL receives and how long it may affect the area.
We will continue to update the forecast as new data arrive. For now, if you have outdoor plans, be prepare to pivot.
