Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a dangerous Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, positioning itself as a potentially historic threat to Jamaica as it approaches the island nation.
As of 11 a.m. EDT Sunday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Hunter aircraft located Melissa's eye approximately 110 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The hurricane is moving west at 3 mph and is expected to continue this slow westward motion through Sunday before turning north and northeast Monday and Tuesday.
Current forecasts predict Melissa will reach Category 5 strength before making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning. If this forecast holds, Melissa would become the strongest hurricane to strike Jamaica since Hurricane Gilbert devastated the island in 1988.
"Seek shelter now," officials warned Jamaica residents as the storm approaches with life-threatening conditions expected to begin well before landfall.
The hurricane's core is forecast to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, then continue across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night and the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds currently reach 140 mph with higher gusts, and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center while tropical-storm-force winds stretch up to 175 miles.
Catastrophic flooding and storm surge expected
Melissa threatens to bring catastrophic rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday, with local maximum amounts potentially reaching 40 inches. These extreme rainfall amounts are expected to produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides across the affected regions.
Life-threatening storm surge along Jamaica's south coast could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level Monday night through Tuesday morning, particularly near and east of where Melissa's center makes landfall. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Eastern Cuba faces the threat of 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local amounts up to 18 inches expected through Wednesday, creating life-threatening flash flooding and landslide conditions.
Warnings and watches in effect
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica, meaning hurricane conditions are expected and preparations to protect life and property should be complete.
A Hurricane Watch covers the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border to Port-Au-Prince, as well as the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin.
A Tropical Storm Warning is active for southwestern Haiti from the Dominican Republic border to Port-Au-Prince.
Officials warn that interests throughout Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor Melissa's progress as additional watches and warnings may be required.
Infrastructure damage anticipated
Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected across Jamaica as Melissa approaches. The combination of damaging winds beginning Sunday and Monday, followed by potentially devastating hurricane-force winds Monday night and Tuesday morning, creates a multi-day threat for the island nation.
In Haiti, catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across the southwestern region through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructure damage and community isolation. While winds have temporarily decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.
The Dominican Republic faces the threat of heavy rainfall through midweek that could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country.
After affecting the Caribbean, Melissa is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast when picked up by a weather system moving off the southeastern United States coast, potentially reaching the vicinity of Bermuda by Friday.
