In case you missed it on Wednesday morning, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on this Groundhog Day. As the legend says that means he is forecasting six more weeks of winter. But how accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
In 1887 a local newspaper editor named Clymer Freas had the idea for Groundhog Day and pitched and sold it to a group of businesspeople and groundhog hunters. This was the expansion of an existing German tradition brought to Pennsylvania in the 18th or 19th century. Phil's first forecast for a long winter was not particularly bad. The east coast was cold, but the west coast was not so much.
Overall, Phil has forecast a longer winter 106 times compared to just 20 times of early spring. But only has a 37% accuracy rate. For perspective that is worse than flipping a coin. In just the last 5 years, Phil was only correct once.
In 2021, he predicted a longer Winter and was wrong. It was a cold February with temperatures running 3.2° below normal nationally. But March was above normal, with temperatures 4.0° above normal.
With a prediction of 6 more weeks of winter, things are not looking too good for Phil. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal temperatures across much of the county, including here in SWFL.
