Tuesday cold front could bring strong to severe storms

Posted at 7:37 PM, Dec 19, 2021
and last updated 2021-12-19 22:54:43-05

The heat and humidity continued to be the main weather story on Sunday. Unlike, Saturday temperatures were shy of records, but humidity made the day feel much more like the wet season.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s, low 70s overnight with areas of fog developing overnight. Some areas could see visibility drop under a mile. Plan for dense fog during the Monday morning commute.

Tomorrow will be another warm, humid day with northeast winds... highs in the low to mid 80s & mostly cloudy skies. A spot shower is possible by afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. Rain chance will rise overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Additionally, winds will likely pick up early Tuesday morning with the frontal passage.

That frontal passage will also provide the next solid chance for rain. The latest forecast models have the front arriving around 2-3am bringing pockets of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms. Some of those thunderstorms could be on the strong to severe side. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center currently has a marginal risk (1 out of 5 risk) of severe weather across much of the Florida Peninsula. The biggest threat at this time looks to be isolated urban street flooding and gust winds. While one or two short lived tornadoes are possible, the risk is low.

The current forecast models are showing an average of 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain across SWFL. That said embedded thunderstorms along the front could easily drop over an inch of rain in isolated locations. Those are the locations where we could see urban street flooding. Considering we are over an inch below normal already for the month of December, this rain will definitely be welcome.

The front itself will be welcome as well as it will usher in cooler, drier air. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low 70s. Thursday morning will likely be the coolest start of the week, with temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s. Temperatures will warm some into the weekend. Expect a high around 80 on Christmas Day with sunny skies.

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