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NOAA predicts "near normal" 2023 hurricane season

Hurricane Ian
NOAA
Posted at 11:48 AM, May 25, 2023
and last updated 2023-05-25 12:09:10-04

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the upcoming hurricane season on Thursday.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

This is after three back-to-back La Nina events in 2020, 2021, and 2022. This year, we are expecting an El Nino to develop during the peak of hurricane season in August, September, and October. While that would traditionally lessen the number of named storms, we have to account for the exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content.

Last year there were 14 named systems, which is the average number of named storms. Those storms cost $117B in damage, the costliest being Hurricane Ian.

Next month, NOAA is launching a new hurricane model, which will eventually become the primary model. It provides a 15% improvement in track and intensity versus other forecast models.

Along with tropical outlooks extended to 7 days, excessive rainfall outlooks will be extended to 5 days, versus the prior 3-day outlooks.

This will give more people a heads up for deadly flooding potential during tropical systems.

As we’re seeing now with “Typhoon Mawar” in the Pacific, the first storm of the season can be devastating, which is why it’s so important to prepare now

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad reminded everyone that it's still imperative to prepare by making a plan and gathering disaster supplies. "It only takes one hurricane to impact a community."


2024 STORM NAMES


AlbertoLeslie
BerylMilton
ChrisNadine
DebbyOscar
ErnestoPatty
FrancineRafael
GordonSara
HeleneTony
IsaacValerie
JoyceWilliam
KirkUnnamed Storm

HURRICANE TERMS


Tropical Storm WATCH
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm WARNING
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.

Hurricane WATCH
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical storm-force winds.

Hurricane WARNING
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds