CAPE CORAL, Fla. — NOAA's National Weather Service has updated its hurricane season forecast, predicting up to 18 named storms this year with as many as five major hurricanes possible.
The National Weather Service is now predicting 13-18 named storms this season (with winds of 39 mph or greater). Of those, 5-9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
Forecasters say there's a 50% chance of above-normal activity this hurricane season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season.
Four named storms have already formed this season, including Tropical Storm Chantal, which brought deadly flooding to the Carolinas during the July Fourth weekend.
"NOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings that are vital for safeguarding lives, property, and communities. As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued," said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.
Experts say warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are driving the increased storm potential. An active West African Monsoon is also contributing to the forecast.
In a typical hurricane season, the Atlantic basin sees 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
"No two storms are alike. Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring," said Ken Graham, NOAA's National Weather Service Director.
Colorado State University researchers released their own updated forecast on Wednesday. They're predicting 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
"Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions," said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
One uncertainty in the forecast is the strong wind shear observed in the Caribbean during June and July. That wind shear can tear apart tropical systems or prevent them from forming, but forecasters expect that shear to weaken in August.
Now is the time to review your hurricane plan and prepare your emergency kit. The hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with the peak typically occurring in September.
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