CAPE CORAL, Fla. — Hurricane season is approaching, and if a storm heads our way, evacuation orders could be issued. But as we've seen with recent storms, some people choose to evacuate while others stay behind.
Fox 4 Meteorologist Andrew Shipley spoke with a researcher at the University of South Florida has been studying the social science behind these potentially life-or-death decisions.
"If you take a storm that could be a Cat 1, people really let their guard down and they are not going to evacuate, and then there could be significant loss of life and destruction from a Cat 1," Dr. Jennifer Collins said.
Dr. Collins has been studying social sciences around hurricanes for the past 10 years. She says her research has shown that people rely too much on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
"People are making their decision to evacuate or not based on that category, that is just based on the wind. But we know a hurricane causes other hazards, particularly the storm surge flooding or rainfall flooding," Dr. Collins said.
As we saw with Hurricane Helene, a storm off the coast can still cause significant storm surge, well away from the forecast cone.
"First of all, they focus on the center of it. Which they shouldn't. And sometimes they think if their residence is outside of that cone, that they are completely safe," Dr. Collins said.
Dr. Collins says people's neighbors can also really influence someone's decision to stay or go.
"And sometimes if people's neighbors are not evacuating, people feel more comfortable staying if that is their neighbor's decision," Dr. Collins said.
Past experience can also play a factor, especially if you were directly impacted.
"Because they said never again, having experienced what they experienced, would they ever stay again for something that could potentially be as bad," Dr. Collins said.
But problems arise when people do evacuate, and the storm never comes.
"The problem is if you get that miss, even though it was forecast to come to you, then that makes you little bit vulnerable because you kind of get this over confidence," Dr. Collins said.
If a hurricane or tropical system does come our way this season, I will bring reliable forecast information so you can make the right evacuation decisions for your family.
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