UPDATE 4 AM 11/13/20
Eta becomes an extratropical low about 85 miles off the coast of Wilmington, North Carolina. This is the last advisory that will be issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Eta could intensify a little as an non-tropical cyclone during the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 10 PM 11/12/20
Tropical Storm Eta continues to bring rain and wind along the coast of North and South Carolina. Eta strengthened a bit over the past few hours and now has a maximum sustained wind of 45 mph as it continues to move toward the northeast at 17 mph. Eta's circulation is becoming elongated with most of the deep convection to the north of its center. Eta may open up into a trough soon and merge with a front Friday. It will move a bit faster toward the northeast and away from the United States late in the day Friday and become post-tropical.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/12/20
Tropical Storm Eta continues to move to the northeast quickly at 18 mph. There are still a few showers in northeast Florida as it pulls away from the sunshine state. It is currently off the coast of Georgia and will continue to bring rain to the Georgia and Carolina coast through Friday morning. Eta is expected to become post tropical late Friday and move out into the Atlantic.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 1 PM 11/12/20
Tropical Storm Eta has moved back out over open water just offshore of the Florida/Georgia border with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph. Eta is moving away from Florida for the last time to the NNE at 15 mph. All watches and warnings have been discontinued. Eta could strengthen a bit as it merges with a frontal zone, but is expected to become extratropical. Eta will move just offshore of the Carolinas through Friday morning bringing heavy rain and possible flooding to that area.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 11 AM 11/12/20
Eta is now positioned near Jacksonville and as sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm will move offshore by tonight and will weaken further as strong upper level shear associated with a trough of low pressure take its toll on the storm. Moisture from Eta is streaming northward into the Carolinas and the Middle Atlantic enhancing the flood threat.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7 AM 11/12/20
Eta weakens a little more as it moves near Gainesville, FL.
Eta should move across northeastern Florida this morning and emerge into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The storm is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone on Friday before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles primarily over water to the east of the center.
A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site at St. Augustine Florida recently reported sustained winds of 37 mph and a gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb based on surface observations from Cedar Key.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 4:20 AM 11/12/20
Eta makes landfall near Cedar Key, Florida this morning. A National Ocean Service weather station indicates that Eta made landfall near Cedar Key Florida at 4:00 AM.
Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 50 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 996 mb (29.42 inches).
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 10 PM 11/11/20
Eta has weakened with winds of 65 mph and a pressure of 993 mb. The storm was moving north at 12 mph. It should make landfall later tonight near Cedar Key then move across the northern part of the state through tomorrow afternoon...then exiting the U.S. Friday into the Atlantic. It will remain breezy overnight but the threat for any significant weather has ended across the region. A few showers will continue through Thursday and the winds will be gusty at times but not nearly as bad as what we saw Wednesday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7:30 PM 11/11/20
Eta maintains winds of 70 mph and is headed northeast fairly quickly. Winds are subsiding across SWFL but the core of the storm is nearing the coast from Pinellas Co. northward where sustained tropical storm force winds continue. The heaviest rain is beginning to lift northward away from SWFL with just lingering showers across areas to the southwest west of Captiva. Overall, most threats appear to be diminishing across SWFL this evening with quieter weather expected overnight.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 4:30 PM 11/11/20
Eta continues on its northeast heading toward the Florida Big Bend region with winds of 70 mph. The tropical storm force wind field is large extending out over 100 mi from the center. This is keeping tropical storm force winds across northern portions of the area this afternoon and will continue to do so into this evening. Additional rainfall of 1-2" will be possible through tonight mainly from Fort Myers, northward. The tornado threat has ended as winds have become southwesterly decreasing the shear in the atmosphere. The storm will be near Jacksonville by Thursday afternoon.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 1:30 PM 11/11/20
Eta has not changed strength and continues northeast. Tornado warnings continue for the Tampa area and tropical storm force winds continue to spread onto the coast.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10:00 AM 11/11/20
Eta remains a hurricane this morning with winds of 75mph. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday.
Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph with higher gusts. Eta could be near hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, mainly northeast of the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.
A sustained wind of 33 mph and a gust to 42 mph were recently measured by a Weatherflow observing station on Sanibel Island. Across the lower Florida Keys, a sustained wind of 39 mph and a gust to 49 mph were recently reported at Sand Key.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 7:35AM 11/11/20
Eta has been upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane based on reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data.
Maximum sustained winds are at 75 mph, with higher gusts near 85 mph.
The storm is less than 130 miles WSW of Fort Myers.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Lee county north through Charlotte and Sarasota counties.
A Tornado Watch has also been issued by the Storms Prediction Center for coastal Southwest Florida until 5pm this evening.
Remember a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 4AM 11/11/20
Tropical Storm Warning from Bonita Springs north in Southwest Florida this morning along with a Flash Flood Watch through Friday and a Storm Surge Watch along the coast.
Eta has strengthened this morning and is moving toward the north near 12 mph. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 11PM 11/10/20
Tropical Storm Eta continues to move toward the Florida coast tonight and has strengthened with winds of 65 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Bonita Beach northward including coastal Lee & Charlotte Co. Tropical storm condtions are expected by tomorrow evening across the area, especially north of the Caloosahatchee as Eta heads toward the Tampa Bay area. Storm surge of 2-4 ft possible to the right of the track. More heavy rainfall and potential flooding can be expected. The best chances for the worst weather will be for areas north of the Caloosahatchee tomorrow evening into tomorrow night.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 4PM 11/10/20
Tropical Storm Eta is now moving northward after holding stationary most of the day. It has been undergoing NW shear but that is now decreasing. The latest track has been moved to the east & now brings Eta into the NE Gulf coast area this weekend. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect until further notice for coastal areas from Sarasota county northward including Tampa. Eta is expected to remain a tropical storm but could strengthen tomorrow to 70mph winds.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 11 AM 11/10/20
Eta has looked much more impressive on satellite this morning exhibiting features associated with a strengthening tropical cyclone. Winds remain around 60 mph and its stationary. it will head north by Wednesday and is expected to weaken by the end of the week as it nears the northern Gulf coast.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7 AM 11/10/20
Eta strengthens a little this morning as it has been drifting southward this morning, but it is expected to become stationary again later today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 4 AM 11/10/20
Eta is stationary, and little overall motion is forecast today, with a slow northward motion is expected tonight through Thursday.
The broad flow around the storm will provide a 50-60% chance of showers and storms today with a ESE breeze between 10-15mph with gust near 20mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 10 PM 11/9/20
Eta hasn't changed at all in regards to strength, but it is moving much slower. It continues to move toward the southwest away from SWFL, but only at 9 mph. Eta's structure is improving which shows signs of organization as Eta is expected to strengthen overnight into Tuesday. In fact, vertical wind shear will be low and water temperatures will be in the mid 80s which could enable Eta to strengthen into a hurricane. Once Eta starts moving toward the north it will encounter stronger vertical wind shear and eventually move into cooler water and a dry upper level environment which should weaken Eta slowly, but surely. Forecast models are not in agreement as we head into the weekend, but it appears as though Eta will move toward the panhandle and weaken into a tropical depression this weekend.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 7 PM 11/9/20
Not much has changed with Tropical Storm Eta over the past few hours besides the fact that it is even further away from southwest Florida. Its forward speed has slowed down to 14 mph as it continues to move toward the southwest. Eta is expected to strengthen overnight into Tuesday and is expected to become a strong tropical storm by the middle of the week. Eta will turn toward the northeast where it will encounter stronger wind shear which should weaken the system this weekend as it possibly approaches the panhandle of Florida. The next complete update will be at 10 pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/9/20
Tropical Storm Eta continues to move away from southwest Florida and hasn't changed in strength since the last advisory. Maximum sustained wind is still 50 mph as it moves toward the southwest quickly at 16 mph. Eta has become more compact and is gaining inner core convection so it appears as though it may be starting to restrengthen. It will become a bit stronger tonight and Tuesday as it is forecast to slow down in the southeast Gulf of Mexico as it moves over warm water and an environment with less vertical wind shear. Dry air could still impact the storm over the next couple days keeping it from becoming a hurricane. Some forecast models take Eta toward the northwest later this week which would dissipate the storm as high vertical wind shear is expected in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but other forecast models take Eta toward the Big Bend region. Most models have Eta remain a tropical storm as it turns to the northeast possibly making yet another landfall in Florida. The forecast cone takes the storm toward the panhandle as a much weaker system, possibly a tropical depression this weekend.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 1 PM 11/9/20
Tropical Storm Eta has weakened as it moves away from southwest Florida. Maximum sustained wind is down to 50 mph as it continues to move to the southwest at 16 mph. Not much rain is left in southwest Florida as Eta pulls away from our area. Eta is now forecast to stay a tropical storm throughout the week. Eta is expected to move back toward the northeast by mid week and possibly make another landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida. Some models have Eta dissipating over the Gulf. Either way we have felt the greatest impact from Eta as conditions will improve throughout the afternoon.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10AM 11/9/20
Tropical Storm Eta has become ragged & fragmented in appearance this morning as dry air continues to get mixed into the core. It has now turned to the SW at 14mph & is expected to remain a tropical storm as it eventually stalls in the Gulf. By Tuesday night, it is expected to start moving north & then NE. But there is quite a bit of uncertainty by the end of the week if it will move toward the NE FL coast or just dissipate over the Gulf.
Rain bands have weakened & winds have decreased as Eta is now further away from the Keys.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 7AM 11/9/2020
Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310 miles from the center.
A wind gust to 43 mph was recently reported in Homestead, Florida.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the aircraft is 992 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 4AM 11/9/2020
Eta continues to move into the Gulf of Mexico this morning WNW at 13mph.
Maximum sustained winds are still at 65mph and gusting to 75mph.
The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains in light to moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will be a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow decay.
The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will be located later in the week.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 1 AM 11/9/2020
Tropical Storm Eta is close to south Florida, about 40 miles northeast of Key West. Eta has already made landfall in lower Matecumbe Key Florida at 11 pm Sunday night. It continues to pack sustained wind of 65 mph as it now moves to the WNW at 14 mph. Heavy bands of rain and moving through inland SWFL as well as southern Lee and Collier County. This is where the greatest potential of rain will be overnight and into Monday morning with another 1-3 inches of rain expected. Tropical storm force wind gusts are likely as well throughout the night, but I think there will be few pockets of sustained wind over 40 mph. Coastal and street flooding are likely overnight into early Monday as storm surge is expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Conditions will improve Monday morning and even more so Monday afternoon. Eta will quickly move away from southwest Florida and most likely become a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico before turning northeast and making landfall yet again somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend region of Florida. Eta will cause breezy conditions throughout the week. The next complete advisory on Eta will be at 4 am.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10 PM 11/8/2020
Tropical Storm Eta remains a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained wind of 65 mph. It continues to move to the northwest at 14 mph. Pressure hasn't changed much over the past few hours showing no signs of strengthening. Minimum central pressure is holding steady at 993 mb. Eta is not expected to strengthen until it is well to the southwest of SWFL. Overnight expect tropical storm force wind gusts up to 60 mph with the potential of periods of tropical storm force wind. Another few inches of rain are likely through Monday evening. The worst conditions will occur overnight into early Monday morning before conditions improve. Once Eta moves into the Gulf of Mexico it is expected to turn toward the northeast and possibly make landfall somewhere in the Big Bend area of Florida. It will remain breezy for the rest of the work week as Eta moves to our west and north.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 7 PM 11/8/2020
Not much has changed with Eta since the last update. In fact, forecast models are in agreement Eta will hold on to tropical storm status and bring the strongest wind and heaviest rain to southwest Florida overnight into Monday morning. Storm surge can be expected between 2 and 4 feet, especially along the Collier County coastline. Beach erosion as well as coastal and street flooding may occur overnight into Monday morning before Eta moves away from southwest Florida. Wind will be lighter Monday morning as gusts will be below tropical storm force. Rain will become less widespread Monday afternoon. Eta is expected to move away from our area Monday and Tuesday. It will move back to the northeast Tuesday afternoon and possibly make landfall around the Big Bend region of Florida well north of Tampa. We will have a breezy week here in southwest Florida with some moisture sticking around through the weekend.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/8/2020
Tropical Storm Eta continues to have maximum sustained wind of 65 mph, but is now moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. Pressure has increased a bit which shows signs of weakening. This may be due to extremely dry air entering the storm from the west as well as moderate southwesterly wind shear. Deep convection has diminished with Eta as seen on infrared satellite, but as Eta moves westward toward the Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico, wind shear should decrease with warm water temperatures helping the system strengthen into a category 1 hurricane. All of southwest Florida is under a tropical storm warning through Monday. The strongest wind will occur overnight tonight when Eta is closest to southwest Florida. Expect tropical storm wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph with several inches of rain and a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet along the Collier County coastline. Several inches of rain could cause flooding of low lying areas and any debris could clog storm drains causing street flooding. Conditions will improve a bit Monday afternoon as the wind becomes lighter and as Eta moves toward the west it will bring most of the moisture away from southwest Florida. Eta is expected to curve back toward the Florida coast north of Tampa, but this should not provide any impacts here in southwest Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 1 PM 11/8/2020
Eta is now over the Straits of Florida with maximum sustained wind of 65 mph. It is now moving NNW at 17 mph. It continues to move quickly and is expected to turn northwestward and be near the Florida Keys overnight which would bring southwest Florida the worst conditions. As Eta moves quickly to the west Monday, conditions will become a bit better here in our area. Eta could become a hurricane in the Gulf then make a turn back toward the northeast later in the week and impact the west coast further to the north. The next complete advisory and cone update will be at 4 pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10 AM 11/8/2020
Eta is forecast to strengthen now that is back over water as it heads toward the Keys. Moderate wind shear affecting the storm now will gradually subside by tonight allowing for the storm to have the opportunity to strengthen. The track remains well south of our area, but given the fact that the wind field is large, we will still get tropical storm force wind gusts here in SWFL tonight and Monday. Gusts up to 50 mph will be possible, especially in rain bands that move through. Heavy rain will spread into the area through tonight and Monday. Some of the rain will be heavy at times creating the risk for flooding in some areas. Rainfall totals will range from 2 to 4" with the heaviest rain across southern and eastern portions of the area. Higher amounts will be possible where persistent rain bands set up.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7 AM 11/8/2020
Eta is now moving over Cuba and should reemerge over the Caribbean waters later this morning or this afternoon. Winds are down to 60 mph. The latest forecast models keep the storm at tropical storm strength as it moves northward then makes a turn westward through the Keys. The wind field will expand in size by tonight and Monday, so even with the center track that far south, the storm will move west in the Gulf, stall then meander around that area for a couple of days, keeping rain chances high through mid-week and the threat for rip currents.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10 PM 11/7/2020
Tropical storm Eta still has maximum sustained wind of 65 mph and continues to move to the northeast at 13 mph. Eta should not strengthen as it makes its way toward Cuba, but when it emerges into the Florida Straights Eta could strengthen a bit due to less wind shear. Dry air will also keep Eta from Strengthening quickly. The forecast cone has moved south and westward, but with Eta's large wind field parts of southwest Florida could experience tropical storm force wind. It looks like the strongest wind will occur late Sunday into Monday morning with over 5 inches of rain possible especially in southern communities. We will continue to monitor Eta both on air and online.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 7 PM 11/7/2020
Tropical storm Eta now has maximum sustained wind of 65 mph and continues to move to the northeast at 14 mph. Central pressure has lowered again to 991 mb since the last advisory. Eta is experiencing strong southwesterly wind shear with much drier air moving in to the western side of the storm. This plus the interaction with Cuba should keep Eta a tropical storm as it heads into the Florida straights. It appears as though the strongest wind in southwest Florida will be felt Sunday evening into early Monday with the brunt of the rain coming in Sunday afternoon into Tuesday morning although Eta could be close enough throughout the week to provide several inches of rain and breezy conditions here in southwest Florida. The next full update will be issued at 10 pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/7/2020
Tropical storm Eta hasn't strengthened in the past few hours with central pressure remaining at 994 mb and a maximum sustained wind of 60 mph. It is still moving to the northeast quickly at 16 mph. It appears as though Eta will move into the Florida Striaghts Sunday afternoon as a tropical storm and be very close to Collier county Monday afternoon. It may strengthen a bit before reaching Cuba, but overall expect tropical storm conditions across parts of southwest Florida Monday and into Tuesday. Eta is expected to encounter dry air from the west and strong southwesterly wind shear which should keep the storm from reaching hurricane status although hurricane watches have been issued for the coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach with tropical storm warnings in effect form Bonita Beach southward as well as Lake Okeechobee. Tropical storm watches are in effect from Bonita Beach northward to Englewood Beach as well as most of southwest Florida. Several inches of rain as well as tropical storm force wind is expected Monday into Tuesday. The new forecast cone has Eta slow up the middle of next week which could bring a prolonged time period of rain and wind across our area.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 1 PM 11/7/2020
Tropical storm Eta has strengthened some more over the past few hours with maximum sustained wind of 60 mph. Central pressure has dropped to 994 mb and its moving faster to the northeast at 17 mph. Increased vertical wind shear and land interaction with Cuba should keep Eta from strengthening much more. conditions should deteriorate late Sunday as the center of the storm is projected to be near Marco Island Monday evening. Strong wind and heavy rain will last through Tuesday and subside a bit Wednesday. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Chokoluskee southward and southeast Florida. I expected those warnings will be issued for much of southwest Florida later today, but for now most of our area is under a tropical storm watch. The next complete advisory and forecast cone will be issued at 4 pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 11 AM 11/7/2020
Eta has strengthened even more with winds of 50 mph. The pressure as measured by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft has dropped to 996 mb.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10 AM 11/7/2020
Eta has regained tropical storm status. The latest track from the NHC brings the center of Eta near Marco Island on Monday evening. The forecast track remains mostly unchanged with the timing a bit slower. This will likely change many more times between now and Monday. Prepare for a strong tropical storm with wind gusts of 40-60 mph. This will be a prolonged event with heavy rain and strong winds expected for Monday and Tuesday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10 PM 11/6/20
Tropical storm watches have been issued for Collier, Hendry, and Glades counties in southwest Florida. This means tropical storm force wind may occur between 36 and 48 hours from now. Eta is still a depression, but is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm overnight as it moves to the northeast at 12 mph. Southwest wind shear will help keep the storm from reaching hurricane status, but will bring more rain and wind to the northeast of the storm which would be southwest Florida. The GFS model has Eta coming very close to southwest Florida while the EURO takes Eta a bit further west. This season the GFS has been more accurate, but we will continue to inform you of any changes in regards to Eta.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 7 PM 11/6/20
Tropical Depression Eta still remains disorganized over the northwest Caribbean and is moving toward the northeast at 7 mph. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Eta is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and eventually move close to southwest Florida. The next complete advisory and forecast cone will be issued at 10 pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/6/20
Eta continues to be a depression in the northwest Caribbean. It is moving toward the northeast now at 7 mph. Eta is now over 85 degree water, but is encountering southwesterly wind shear and drier air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will keep Eta from strengthening rapidly. It is still expected to become a tropical storm tonight and make landfall in Cuba Sunday morning. This will inhibit strengthening for a bit before it moves out into the Florida Straights. It will then move toward the north then northwest possibly hitting the Florida Keys Monday morning. Because of a continued southwesterly wind shear, tropical storm force wind will be felt greater to the northeast of its center. The greatest threat of wind and rain in SWFL would occur Monday and Tuesday as the storm passes to our south and west.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10 AM 11/6/20
Eta is still a depression and is now moving through the Caribbean. Water temps in this area well into the 80s, more than enough for restrengthening, but there is upper-level shear and dry air that will likely keep the storm from intensifying too quickly. Also, land interaction with Cuba will likely keep the storm in check. A turn toward the northwest will occur as the storm crosses Cuba and this will put South Florida in play for possible impacts. With an expected large wind field and most of the rain on the east side of the system, the sheared storm will bring wind rain to South Florida as early as Sunday afternoon with the worst conditions in SWFL expected on Monday into Tuesday as the storm slowly moves by the area. The latest forecast models still show a large spread from the Keys to a trek across the heart of SWFL. The American GFS is the most aggressive with strengthening and brings the storm closer to SWFL. The Euro is farther southwest over the Keys. Impacts here will depend on the exact track and size of the storm. The closer the center tracks to SWFL the bigger the impacts. Tropical storm-force wind gusts and very heavy rainfall can be expected. When the storm moves over into the Gulf on Tuesday, the threat for coastal flooding and isolated tornadoes in the favorably sheared environment east of the center can be expected. It is still early to get too specific with hazards but prepare for the likelihood of tropical storm force wind gusts and potentially heavy rainfall.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7 AM 11/6/20
No major changes with the 7AM advisory as there has not been much additional data to analyze the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 35mph.
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in analyzing the cyclone.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 4 AM 11/6/20
Eta is back over the open water of the Caribbean is likely become as tropical storm later on today. Southwest Florida is still in the forecast track. Heavy rain, flooding and severe weather likely late Sunday into Monday as Eta approaches South Florida.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 10 PM 11/5/20
Tropical Depression Eta is now over the northwest Caribbean and is now moving toward the north at 8 mph. Maximum sustained wind is at 35 mph, but Eta is forecast to strengthen as it moves into the Caribbean even though right now it is hard to find a center of the storm. Once Eta regains tropical storm status southwesterly wind shear will increase. Eta is forecast to hit Cuba and move into the Florida Straights. The cone has sped Eta up and brings the storm close to the Florida Keys late Sunday night. We will continue to monitor any further changes.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 7 PM 11/5/20
Eta hasn't changed much over the past few hours, but it will be moving into the northwest Caribbean tonight. It continues to bring flooding rain to parts of central America. A new forecast cone and update will be issued at 10 pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/5/20
Eta remains a weak tropical depression over Honduras. Eta is getting closer to moving back into the Caribbean which should happen tonight. Eta is expected to gain strength, but not as fast as before as there will be moderate southwesterly wind shear. Eta is then expected to move toward Cuba and into the Florida straights. The current forecast cone has Eta moving south of southwest Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it's still too early to tell exactly the path Eta will take. We will continue to monitor Eta over the coming days.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 11 AM 11/5/20
Eta remains over Honduras as a tropical depression and could become a remnant low pressure later today. It is still expected to move into the Caribbean by Friday possibly restrengthening.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 4AM 11/5/20
Eta continues to produce heavy rains and life threatening flooding over portions of Central America.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight.
Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure this morning. However, re-intensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 10 PM 11/4/20
Eta's low level circulation is losing its definition, but Tropical Depression Eta continues to bring heavy rain and 35 mph wind to parts of Central America. The storm is located over Honduras and is now moving to the WNW at 7 mph. Eta will curve to the north and northeast and move over the northwest Caribbean Friday. The remnant low should strengthen into a Tropical Storm late Friday or Saturday and move toward Cuba. The forecast cone has Eta in the Florida Straights Sunday afternoon and just offshore of southwest Florida Monday. There's still plenty of variation in the models so we will continue to give updates as new data comes in.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 7 PM 11/4/20
Tropical Storm Eta has now been downgraded to a tropical depression. Not much change will occur with Eta over the next day and a half or so until it moves into the northwest Caribbean. Several more inches of rain can be expected in parts of central America by Friday before the storm moves back out into open water. Eta is expected to redevelop and possibly move over parts of Cuba Sunday and in the vicinity of southwest Florida Monday. We will continue to closely monitor Eta for any changes.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/4/20
Eta has continued to weaken over central America and should become a tropical depression later this evening. Eta has maximum sustained wind of 40 mph as it continues to move toward the west at 7 mph. Eta could strengthen over the northwest Caribbean and become a tropical storm once again. We will continue to monitor Eta as the cone still takes the storm very close to southwest Florida early Monday.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 1 PM 11/4/20
Tropical Storm Eta is now a much weaker system with maximum sustained wind of 45 mph. It is still located over Nicaragua and is bringing several inches of rain to Nicaragua and Honduras. It is moving slowly toward the west at 7 mph. It is forecast to loop around and move back in the northwest Caribbean. The remnants of Eta are expected to strengthen once again to a tropical storm and move toward Cuba early Sunday. The forecast cone includes SWFL Monday morning, but there is still uncertainly in the forecast models that far out. We will continue to monitor this system through the weekend and into early next week.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 11 AM 11/4/20
Eta continues weakening and is expected to become a remnant low across Nicaragua and Honduras before moving back into the Caribbean by Friday. The storm will likely struggle to regain the structure it had as a Cat 4 hurricane, meaning we will likely see a ragged system moving northward toward Florida this weekend. Another factor, strong upper-level shear due to a trough of low pressure dipping into the Gulf will act to hinder any further development of the storm. Nonetheless, there is still some uncertainty in the forecast and the system will need to be closely monitored this weekend.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 4AM 11/4/20
Eta weakens to a tropical storm. Life-threatening flash flooding occurring over Central American.
A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Tropical Storm Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through this morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next couple of days, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 10 PM 11/3/20
Eta is moving inland across Nicaragua and is weakening, now down to a Cat 2 with winds of 105 mph. The storm will continue weakening as it moves inland across Nicaragua and Honduras before turning northeast into the Caribbean by this weekend. The storm is forecast to approach the Keys this weekend as a tropical storm. The future strength will be highly dependent on how intact the core remains after being over land. The storm will likely be a sloppy mess once it leaves Central America and will take some time to reorganize.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 4PM 11/3/20
Hurricane Eta is making landfall along the Nicaraguan coast with 140mph winds, a cat. 4. It is moving very slowly to the west which will make it even more destructive as it makes its way inland. Catastrophic wind damage is expected in the next few hours near the eyewall. Life-threatening storm surge & destructive waves with water levels as high as 14-21 ft. are forecast to produce flash flooding, land & mudslides. It will likely weaken as it moves over the mountains. By the weekend, it is forecast to move back over the Caribbean Sea, re-strengthen to a tropical storm & move toward Florida. This is very uncertain but something we now need to watch heading into the weekend.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 1PM 11/3/20
Hurricane Eta has weakened a bit today but still remains a powerful cat. 4 with 140 mph winds. It is slowly making landfall now along the Nicaragua coast. Life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds, flash flooding, & mudslides are expected as Eta makes its way into Nicaragua & then Honduras. It is expected to quickly weaken over land but by the weekend, it or remnants of it will pop back out into the Caribbean Sea over warm water. There is should re-strengthen to a tropical storm. The path & forecast are very uncertain at this point but we will need to watch it closely.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 10AM 11/3/20
No major changes at 10AM. Eta inches closer toward the coast of Nicaragua.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 7AM 11/3/20
Eta weakens slightly. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Eta remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.
Sustained winds of 69 mph with gusts to 103 mph were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.
The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 936 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 4AM 11/3/20
On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area in a few hours. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts.
Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb.
Sustained winds of 56 mph with gusts to 91 mph were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 11PM 11/2/20
Eta is close to Cat 5 strength with winds at 150 mph. The pressure continues to drop. The last pass from the hurricane hunter aircraft shows pressures are down to around 925 mb...possibly lower. The storm is expected to become a Cat 5 overnight.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 5PM 11/2/20
Eta in now a very impressive cat. 4 hurricane with 130mph winds. It has a small eye & the environment ahead of it looks to be favorable for even more strengthening before making landfall late tonight or early Tue. But, if it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle, it may remain at this intensity. Since it is moving slowly to the west, heavy rainfall will be a major threat to Central America. By this weekend, we will need to watch the Caribbean as it may regenerate part of Eta & the future track is very uncertain as this point.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 2 PM 11/2/20
Eta continues to showcase a display of power with winds at Cat 3 strength around 120 mph with no sign of leveling off or weakening. The storm is likely to reach Cat 4 status at least before landfall in Nicaragua on Tuesday. The storm will slow down, leading to the potential for significant destruction and flooding, similar to what the area saw with Hurricane Mitch back in 1998. The future track is still uncertain once it moves inland, but it does appear it will move back into the Caribbean later this week with another chance for restrengthening as it heads north.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7AM 11/2/20
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Continued strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 4AM 11/2/20
Eta is the 12th Hurricane to form during the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only 3 Atlantic seasons on record have had 12 or more hurricanes.
1969 had 12, 2005 had 15 and 2010 had 12 hurricanes.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT
UPDATE 10 PM 11/1/20
Eta continues to strengthen, but still remains a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained wind of 70 mph. It continues to move toward the west at 13 mph with central pressure falling to 989 mb. Eta looks impressive with 2 outflow channels and a small eye forming. Eta will continue to strengthen in a favorable environment and could become a major hurricane with wind of 115 mph. Hurricane and storm surge warnings have been issued for the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras as Eta is expected to make landfall Monday night into Tuesday morning. Once making landfall Eta will weaken and move toward the west. There is a chance Eta could move back into the Caribbean and move northward toward Cuba. We will continue to monitor this system throughout the week.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 4 PM 11/1/20
Tropical Storm Eta has been strengthening throughout the day and now has maximum sustained wind of 65 mph. It continues to move to the west at 15 mph. With warm water and high moisture content, Eta should strengthen rapidly as it it continues to move in an area with low vertical wind shear. Numerous hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for central America. Once Eta makes landfall it will weaken substantially. Remnants of Eta could re-emerge in the northwest Caribbean and move northward, but it is still too early to tell what will happen after Eta makes landfall. We will continue to monitor this storm throughout the week.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 11 PM 10/31/20
TD #29 has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Eta. This is the first time the name Eta has been used in the Atlantic basin. Maximum sustained wind if 40 mph as it continues to move to the west at 15 mph. Conditions will continue to be favorable as Eta moves through the Caribbean and it is expected to strengthened into a hurricane early next week. In fact, hurricane watches have been issued for the northern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Even though the cone tracks Eta into central America the GFS model slows the system down and curves it toward the northwest so we will continue to monitor Eta through next weekend.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
FIRST UPDATE 5 PM 10/31/20
Tropical Depression number 29 has now formed in the central Caribbean. It has maximum sustained wind of 35 mph and is moving to the west at 15 mph. Showers and storms have become better organized the past few hours as this system now has a well defined center. TD #29 will be moving in a favorable environment of low wind shear, plenty of moisture, and very warm water temperatures therefore it is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm and then a hurricane over the next couple days. It would be named Eta, the next letter in the Greek alphabet after Zeta. It is expected to move toward Nicaragua and Honduras through next week. The models disagree with the movement of what will become Eta next week. It should slow down in a few days and either impact central America or possibly meander somewhere in the western Caribbean. We will closely monitor this system and keep you informed as any changes occur.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
