AUGUST 8, 2025 — Development is not forecast in the Caribbean or Gulf through the next 7-days. We are monitoring two waves in the Atlantic Ocean.
1. Western Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or so while it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. The low is likely to merge with a front over the weekend, ending its chances for tropical or subtropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
2. Central Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing minimal shower activity. Development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward to northward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
