FORECAST: Tropics beginning to wake up, increasing rain chances again late week

Posted at 8:23 PM, Jun 16, 2024

Here is your evening forecast for Sunday, June 15th, 2024

It was a nice, mostly dry in SWFL, giving us a chance to dry out after all the rain last week.

Tonight, we will stay partly cloudy with temperatures falling into the upper 70s as we stay humid.

On Monday, we will start with partly cloudy skies. But look for isolated sea breeze thunderstorms developing after 2pm. With a easterly wind, any storm will move from towards the coast. Temperatures will be in the low 90s, but with humidity still feel like 100°.

Lower rain chances will linger into Tuesday, but start to increase as the week moves forward. This is do a tropical wave coming across in the pond.

8PM National Hurricane Center Update:

The National Hurricane Center is watching two areas for possible development, one could impact Florida.

The first is a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. That area has a 50% chance of developing over next 2 days 70% chance over the next 7 days as it slowly drifts westward. This will likely bring heavy rain to parts of Texas and Mexico. It will pose no threat to FL. This also could become a tropical depression or tropical storm by midweek.

The second is a tropical wave coming across the Atlantic. It could form into an area of low pressure late next week and move across the state of Florida. Right now, this only looks like a rain maker and nothing more. It has a low chance of further development at 30% over the next 7 days. It is too early to know what the local impacts will be, but there is no model developing this into a major storm and definitely not one making landfall in SWFL. It is a good reminder, like last weeks record rainfall, now is the time to be prepared.

The first named storm will be Alberto.

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