The Colorado State University (CSU) Weather and Climate Research Department has updated its outlook for the 2023 hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
CSU originally forecast 15 named storms in June. As of July 6, that number has increased to 18. This number includes the unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June.
Because of record sea surface temperatures, Colorado State University forecasters are expecting a more active season with a total of 18 named storms (we've already technically had 4). This despite El Nino likely to develop during the peak of the season....#flwx pic.twitter.com/LoRPpqMhcC
— Katie Walls (@KatieWallsTV) July 7, 2023
While experts continue to anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, (August through October) most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea surface temperatures. This extreme warmth will help to fuel any storms that initialize and could counteract the effects of El Niño.
Once El Niño develops, it will increase vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, helping to limit the strength in developing storms.
For now, the tropics are quiet as Saharan dust inhibits formation through the next seven days.
