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STUDY: Cape Coral #3 in nation to face housing downturn in a recession

Redfin analyzed data from 98 U.S. housing markets as possible recession looms
housing market
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Posted at 4:50 PM, Aug 11, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-12 08:58:16-04

CAPE CORAL, Fla.  — According to a study by Redfin, Cape Coral is third in the nation to have a housing downtown if our nation reaches a recession.

The study published July 26th, shows Cape Coral comes in at #3, following Riverside, California and Boise, Idaho. Northport, Florida also came in at #4 and Tampa at #9.

According to the Redfin analysts, cities where people were flocking to during the pandemic making for fast, hot markets are the most susceptible to cool down the fastest in a recession.

Analysts looked at 98 U.S. markets and their risk factors including how much debt people have on their homes, relative to the value of their homes, how many people are moving to the area and how much that market has already cooled down since mortgage rates went up.

"Cape Coral has a pretty high risk if we enter into a recession," said Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin. "Florida, in general, has seen a lot of migration and especially to those more affordable places like Cape Coral, so that really stoked demand earlier in the year so much so that people were getting over asking by 10s of 1000s of dollars on homes and that means that now the market is cooled there's more room to fall for a place like Cape Coral. And if there were recession we might see even more fall in an area like Cape Coral, which could result in declining prices."

Fairweather describes it more as a housing downturn or a correction rather than a crash.

"I think there might be a bit of a correction, you know, a 1% downturn 2% But I really don't think prices will decline by more than 5%," she said.

The study says homeowners in those areas who are considering selling may want to do so soon to avoid any kind of price declines.