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Higher Hurricane Risk for Southern Florida in October

October Tropical Tracks.png
Posted at 9:15 PM, Sep 30, 2021
and last updated 2021-09-30 21:16:14-04

WFTX — Now that October has arrived, the areas we watch for tropical storm & hurricane development switches from the eastern Atlantic to the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico. Storms that do develop off the coast of Africa by now tend to move northward keeping them out in the Atlantic & away from the US.

That puts Florida in the danger zone, especially southern Florida. Why? Well, winds tear tropical systems apart & by October, westerly winds cutting across the Atlantic become stronger. Wind shear is a threat now. Cold fronts are able to reach farther south blocking storms from reaching areas to the north. They also bring cooler air southward & that affects the water temperatures. Tropical cyclones need water of at least 80 degrees F to grow strengthen.

Some of the most notable hurricanes to hit Florida in October include Michael in 2018, Opal in 1995, & Isabell in 1964.

Right now we're trailing 2020's pace by just a smidge so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the Alternate Names List show up very soon!