WFTX — Now that October has arrived, the areas we watch for tropical storm & hurricane development switches from the eastern Atlantic to the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico. Storms that do develop off the coast of Africa by now tend to move northward keeping them out in the Atlantic & away from the US.
That puts Florida in the danger zone, especially southern Florida. Why? Well, winds tear tropical systems apart & by October, westerly winds cutting across the Atlantic become stronger. Wind shear is a threat now. Cold fronts are able to reach farther south blocking storms from reaching areas to the north. They also bring cooler air southward & that affects the water temperatures. Tropical cyclones need water of at least 80 degrees F to grow strengthen.
Some of the most notable hurricanes to hit Florida in October include Michael in 2018, Opal in 1995, & Isabell in 1964.
Right now we're trailing 2020's pace by just a smidge so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the Alternate Names List show up very soon!