Thursday Morning Update: Tropical Storm Matthew is struggling with wind shear this morning and has not strengthened much wind-wise since the 8PM advisory Wednesday night with winds now at 70mph.
Pressure did drop a couple of more millibars down to 1002.
Matthew is also moving through a typically unfavorable area for strengthening for tropical systems in the western Caribbean, due to faster easterly trade winds and these two factors confirm what I was thinking Wednesday that intensification would be modest at best.
Model forecasts remain the same for the most part: slower in timing, with the typical beyond 5 day flip-flopping with the Euro and GFS.
Most notably, the European Ensemble models have shifted east with the latest run, not have as many members showing a Gulf track scenario.
Also the National Hurricane Center has gone more conservative with intensification, only bringing it to winds around 100 mph east of Jamaica by Monday morning and inland over eastern Cuba Tuesday morning.