TROPICS UPDATE: A tropical wave west of the Cape Verde Islands now designated Invest 94L has a 70% (HIGH) chance of development in 5 days.
It appears to be handling the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) well and is gradually organizing.
It's expected to continue slowly developing through the end of the week and we could have a tropical cyclone (depression/storm) by this weekend as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Large spread in the ensemble model plots in 10 days due to uncertainty in the eventual strength of the system and the evolution of the steering patterns.
Will continue to monitor.