High chance of Gulf tropical development this week

Posted at 12:17 PM, Jun 18, 2017
and last updated 2017-06-19 11:15:51-04

Invest 93L , our tropical disturbance in the Caribbean, has a *HIGH* chance of development in the next few days. The system is still disorganized but is looking more impressive on satellite as of late. A drift toward the north will continue with it entering the Gulf on Monday. Computer model forecasts still disagree with the UKMET and Euro taking it west toward Texas as a weaker system. The GFS brings it northward toward Mobile/Pensacola while the new GFS Parallel has a stronger system moving into southeast Louisiana as of the latest run. The previous run took it into Panama City. These models will flip flop as they usually do with these types

The thing to note is all of the models keep the storm west of the Florida Peninsula and in some cases WELL west of our area. However, as is often the case with tropical systems that enter the Gulf, they often have huge moisture fields associated with them, so we could still get some bands of heavier rain setting up across #SWFL with a system well west of us. That will be the concern for the first part of the week, with some flash flooding possible with heavier storms. Wind impacts will be minimal. The northern Gulf Coast however stands to get a TON of rainfall from this system this week.

I am not concerned about Invest 92L which is the disturbance in the western Atlantic. This system may intensify into a tropical storm before weakening as it moves into the Caribbean. There is no indication this will affect us in any way.