Disturbance near the Bahamas becoming less organized

Posted at 2:15 PM, Aug 25, 2016
and last updated 2016-08-26 07:17:13-04

2 AM FRIDAY UPDATE -- From the National Hurricane Center: The low is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to its south and east, and upper-level winds are not expected to be particularly conducive for development during the next day or so while this system moves more slowly toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph. 

However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the weekend or early next week while the system moves through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


10 PM THURSDAY UPDATE -- Invest 99L continues to battle dry air and wind shear tonight. NHC has dropped the chance of development to 30% in 2 days & 60% in 5 days.

Significant development before reaching South Florida by Sunday/Monday is looking unlikely. 

-Chief Meteorologist Derek Beasley


The National Weather Service issued the following statement of Disturbance 1 near Hispaniola at 2pm Thursday:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas. Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, and that the strongest winds associated with the system likely have decreased to below tropical storm strength.

In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has become significantly less organized during the past 24 hours.

Although upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola today.  This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two.

Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend.

Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent

Formation chance through 5 days: high, 70 percent