UPDATE 8/20/2020 8 AM:
Click here for more information on Tropical Depression Thirteen.
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. A tropical depression is likely to form today or tonight as the system approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours is 90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is 90 percent.
2. A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Africa coast. This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours is 20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is 40 percent.
UPDATE 8/19/2020 11 AM
The tropical wave that has the highest chance for developing first is Invest 98L near 45° W. I would not be surprised to see this classified as a depression within the next day or so. The pattern favors a movement west toward the southeast U.S. possibly into the Gulf, with the GFS American Ensemble and Euro Ensemble hinting at this westward track. The GFS Ensemble is stronger with the system at the moment, with the German Icon model and the NAVGEM model both hinting at it developing into a significant hurricane. As with all of these systems, especially ones that move through the Caribbean, there will be many factors to watch that will determine the ultimate strength and path. Prepare now and we'll continue to update you as conditions warrant.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/19/2020 8 AM
No changes with the 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. The two areas closest to the U.S. still have a high chance of developing over the next 5 days.
It is likely we will be tracking two Tropical Depressions or Storms in the days ahead. The next two names on the list are Laura and Marco.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/19/2020 5 AM
Then National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas in the tropics this morning.
1. The first is a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move slower and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 40 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is high at 80 percent.
2. The second is an elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands that continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is high at 90 percent.
3. The third is far away and we have plenty of time to monitor this one. It is a large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea, Africa, and is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for formation while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days low 20 percent.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/18/2020 11 AM
NHC is keeping a close eye on two tropical waves in the Atlantic. The first tropical wave is near 65° W. This wave will continue moving west over the next few days before emerging into the Gulf, where it has a fair chance to develop further. NHC is giving this area a MEDIUM chance for development in the next 5 days.
The next area is farther east, centered near 40° W. This tropical wave (Invest 98L) has a HIGH chance for development in 5 days as it moves west. We will continue to monitor both, but there is no immediate threat to our area from either system. Now is the time to prepare (while it is quiet) in case we do have to deal with a storm later this season.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
