UPDATE 6/8/2020 5 AM
Cristobal has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression this morning as it weakens pushing inland in the Southeast. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph and this motion should continue with some increase in forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a north-northeast motion and a faster forward speed Tuesday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal should move through southwestern Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes by Wednesday. Over the past 200 years only three tropical systems have had an impact on Wisconsin. The remnants of Cristobal will be the fourth. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected through Tuesday. However, Cristobal is expected to strengthen some as it becomes an extratropical low Tuesday night and Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 994 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 6/7/2020 11 PM
Cristobal continues to drop several inches of rain along the Gulf Coast with tropical storm force wind extending into the Florida panhandle. It has weakened a bit to 45 mph as it moves NNW at 10 mph. Several more inches of rain can be expected as well as a continued storm surge overnight of 3 to 5 feet are likely.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/7/2020 7 PM
Cristobal has now made landfall over southeast Louisiana with maximum sustained wind of 50 mph and continues to move north at 7 mph. Storm surge of 3 to 5 feet have been seen along the Louisiana coast with heavy rain and tropical storm force wind as far east as the Florida panhandle. Cristobal will gradually weaken as it moves NNW over the next day or so. It will then become post tropical and move NNE bringing rain and windy conditions along the Mississippi River and into the Midwestern states by the middle of this week.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/7/2020 5 PM
Tropical storm force wind and heavy rain ongoing along parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the panhandle of Florida as Cristobal is only 65 miles away from New Orleans. Tropical storm force wind extends over 200 miles from the center of Cristobal and storm surge is expected to be between 3 and 5 feet in southeast Louisiana. It is moving slower to the north at 7 mph with maximum sustained wind is at 50 mph and is not expected to strengthen any more before it makes landfall which will occur in the next couple hours.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/5/2020 11 PM
Not much has changed with Cristobal since the previous advisory. Maximum sustained wind is 50 mph and it is still moving to the north at 12 mph. Outer rain bands have been moving on shore to the north of the storm. Several tornadoes were seen in central Florida due to Cristobal, but none here in SWFL. Rain is still falling across SWFL and is expected to continue into Sunday. Cristobal will make landfall just west of New Orleans sometime Sunday afternoon.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/6/2020 5 PM
Cristobal is now about 280 miles away from the mouth of the Mississippi River and is moving north at 12 mph. Maximum sustained wind remains at 50 mph with gusts to 65. It appears Cristobal is still on track to make landfall late Sunday afternoon just west of New Orleans. Cristobal is still encountering dry air which means it should only intensify a bit before making landfall Sunday with wind around 60 mph. With southwesterly shear of the storm, large areas of convection appear on the east and northeast side of the storm. Some shower and thunderstorm activity has been enhanced in southwest Florida and another round of storms can be expected this evening.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/5/2020 11 PM
Cristobal has strengthened a bit over the past few hours and now has maximum sustained wind at 45 mph with gusts to 60. Its forward speed is north at 14 mph so a bit faster than before. It seems as though the cone moves east during each model run and moves Cristobal quicker toward the New Orleans area. Landfall is expected to occur sometime Sunday evening. Moderate wind shear and dry air on the west and southwest side of the storm will allow Cristobal to strengthen slowly even though its over warm water.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/5/2020 5 PM
The latest update on Cristobal has its forward speed slightly faster at 13 mph and is moving to the North. Maximum sustained wind is still at 40 mph as it has now moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Even though Cristobal is over warm water, southwest shear and dry mid level conditions will only allow Cristobal to strengthen slowly. Tropical storm watches and warnings as well as storm surge watches and warnings are in effect for the coast of Louisiana through the western panhandle of Florida as the storm is expected to make landfall as a Tropical Storm late Sunday evening. Again there is no threat here in SWFL from Cristobal.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/5/2020 2 PM
Cristobal has restrengthed to a tropical storm and is headed to the Gulf. Winds now at 40 mph. Full update at 5 PM.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/5/2020 11 AM
Cristobal is headed north and will emerge over the Gulf later Friday. Strengthening is expected for the next 2 days as it moves across the Gulf headed to Louisiana. Landfall is still expected early Monday. Storm surge and a flood threat are expected as it makes landfall and moves inland. The far outer bands could affect the Florida West coast as it moves by especially Sunday with a heavy rain threat. Besides that, other than rough offshore seas, not much in the way of impacts are expected here.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/5/2020 5 AM
Tropical Depression Cristobal is located inland over Mexico just north of Guatemala. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph and a turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. The latest forecast track has the center moving over the Yucatan peninsula today and then back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the depression is located over land however gradual strengthening is forecast to begin once the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 6/4/2020 11 PM
Cristobal is drenching Guatemala and the Yucatan tonight. The storm is expected to turn north and head out into the Gulf by later Friday with possible strengthening as it tracks across the Gulf this weekend. There has been no change to the track and it is still expected to reach Louisiana by Sunday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/4/2020 5 PM
Cristobal remains a tropical depression as it moves very slowly over southern Mexico. Several more inches of rain are expected in southern Mexico and Central America before Cristobal moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This will allow Cristobal to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico which should happen tomorrow night. Wind shear and dry mid level air could slow the strengthening of Cristobal as it moves northward, but it is expected to become a tropical storm and eventually pick up forward speed. Landfall is expected to occur west of New Orleans late Sunday or early Monday which means storm surge could be an issue in New Orleans. We will continue to monitor the latest development of Cristobal.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 6/4/2020 11 AM
Criistobal has weakened to a depression and will make a north turn by Friday and head into the Gulf this weekend. It will likely make landfall in Louisiana later Sunday as a tropical storm.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/4/2020 5 AM
Tropical Storm Cristobal is located over southern Mexico and is slowly is moving toward the southeast at 2 mph. The storm should begin a turn toward the east and northeast is later today and eventually a northward motion should occur through Saturday. Based on the latest forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico today and tonight then the center is expected to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late , then over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday before approaching the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression later this morning but re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure of Cristobal is 998mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 6/3/2020 11 PM
Cristobal continues weakening wind are down to around 45 mph. Further weakening is expected while it remains over land before turning north with a chance to intensify as it approaches the Louisiana coast on Sunday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/3/2020 5 PM
Cristobal made landfall earlier today on the Mexican coast and is moving inland while slowly weakening. It will continue weakening before turning north toward the northern Gulf Coast by this weekend, possibly restrengthening as it moves across the Gulf.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/3/2020 11 AM
Tropical Storm Cristobal is nearing the Mexican coast this morning with winds at 60 mph. The storm could move inland today, and will turn north into the Gulf later this week. Depending on how long it stays inland, we could see significant weakening or perhaps little weakening, giving it a better chance to survive once it moves back out over water. This will pay a big role in its eventual strength as it approaches the northern Gulf coast later this week. In the meantime, heavy rain, gusty winds and the threat for flooding can be expected.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/2/2020 11 PM
Cristobal has strengthened a little more with winds of 50 mph. Forecast track takes it toward the Louisiana coast by this weekend as a strong tropical storm.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/2/2020 8 PM
Cristobal has strengthened a little this evening with winds now up to 45 mph. It is drifting SE toward the Mexican coast.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/2/2020 8 PM
Cristobal has strengthened a little this evening with winds now up to 45 mph. It is drifting SE toward the Mexican coast.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 6/2/2020 5 PM
Tropical Storm Cristobal hasn't changed in intensity. Still expected to move north toward the northern Gulf Coast by this weekend as a strong tropical storm. Latest forecast track takes it near Lafayette LA by Sunday afternoon, well west of Florida.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
FIRST UPDATE 6/2/2020 11 AM
Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed over the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Max winds are around 40 mph and it is drifting southwest toward the Mexican Coast. There is a chance that the storm could move inland briefly over the Mexican coast before being pulled north later in the period by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This would bring it back out over the warm waters of the Gulf, allowing for reintensification. The latest forecast models project a strong tropical storm or perhaps a minimal hurricane making landfall between Texas and the Mississippi Gulf Coast by later this weekend. All interests on the northern Gulf Coast need to pay attention to the developments of this storm. We will likely see some of the moisture from Cristobal here in SWFL this weekend, in the form of an increased chance for showers and storms, the threat for locally heavy rainfall near the coast, rough seas and increased winds, especially over the open waters. It is still way too early to say specifically what effects we can expect, if any at all. It will depend on the eventual, size, strength and track of the storm.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
