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Latest update on the tropical wave in the Atlantic

Posted: 4:01 PM, Jul 30, 2019
Updated: 2019-08-05 08:27:31-04

UPDATE 2 PM 8/4:

Chances for development now down to 0%. Conditions will be unfavorable for development through the week due to strong upper level wind shear. This is the last update on this tropical wave.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 AM 8/4:

Down to 10% chance of development. Any chance of future development is dwindling fast due to the expected strong upper level shear it will encounter this week.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 PM 8/3:

No change. Still at 20% chance for development. Wind shear will increase next week, closing the window for the opportunity for development.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 2 PM 8/3:

Tropical wave chances for development now down to 20%.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 AM 8/3:

Tropical wave now is down to 20/30 % chance for development in 2/5 days. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development however a tropical depression may still develop by the middle of next week. There are no expectations that this wil be a threat to South Florida.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 PM 8/2:

The cluster of showers over the Atlantic is being affected by dry air & wind shear right now. The National Hurricane Center still feels this system could become a tropical depression by next Tue. or Wed. even with only marginal conditions. We'll keep watching as it moves west-northwestward toward the Lesser Antilles.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 8 AM 8/2:

Tropical wave now has a 40% chance of development in 5 days. Dry air is keeping the system weak and upper level shear impact the system this weekend into next week, likely keeping the chance for further development low.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 PM 8/1:

No change....still at 70% chance for development in 5 days. It appears that there will be a brief window where this could become a depression before conditions become unfavorable next week. None of the models develop this system anymore and the likelihood of a significant system developing has diminished due to the hostile conditions in the Atlantic right now.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 2 PM 8/1:

Invest 96L is looking less impressive on satellite today as opposed to how it looked late last night. Dry air and wind shear continue to impact the system, preventing it from organizing. Chances for development are lower due to the likelihood that the system will have problems dealing with these two factors.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 AM 8/1:

The National Hurricane Center is closely watching a board area of low pressure in the open Atlantic 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The chances for development are high, up to 70% over the next 5 days. A depression will likely form by early next week and the thinking hasn't changed from the earlier update. High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to drive this area of low pressure west in the days ahead. Looking long range, both the Euro and GFS computer models develop the system as it moves past the Lesser Antilles toward the Bahamas. However still plenty of time to watch this system as it moves across the Atlantic waters.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 8 PM 7/31:

Chances are now up to 70% or HIGH chance in 5 days. A depression will likely form by early next week and the thinking hasn't changed from the earlier update. Both the Euro and GFS develop the system as it moves past the Lesser Antilles toward the Bahamas. The main factors for its eventual path will be the Atlantic ridge, the the trough that is expected to develop over the eastern US and eastern Gulf and the eventual strength of the system. Still plenty of time to watch it so stay tuned!

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 2 PM 7/31:

The NHC now has the system in the Atlantic up to a 60% chance of development in 5 days. Tropical development is looking likely east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week. Long range forecast models continue to show a trough of low pressure or dip in the jet stream through the first week of August over the eastern U.S. this would likely cause any developing system to recurve and miss the U.S. but it is still way too early to make a clear call on this. Plenty of time to watch it!

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 AM 7/31:

National Hurricane Center monitoring two tropical waves now brings tropical development up to 50% for the tropical wave in the Atlantic. The system is surrounded by dry air and dust from the Saharan Desert which is UNFAVORABLE for development as well as moderate upper level wind shear. Conditions are expected to become more favorable later in the week and we could see a tropical depression form by early next week.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 PM 7/30:

NHC now brings tropical development up to 40% for the tropical wave in the Atlantic. The system is surrounded by dry air and dust from the Saharan Desert which is UNFAVORABLE for development as well as moderate upper level wind shear. Conditions are expected to become more favorable later in the week and we could see a tropical depression form by this weekend.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 2 PM 7/30:

As we close out July we are keeping our eyes on two tropical waves, one near Puerto Rico, the second just off the coast of Africa. There is a low chance for development for both waves with the second one off the coast of Africa having the best chance for development due to it being over the Atlantic and having plenty of time to develop. There is a lot of dry air and dust in the Atlantic that should inhibit development of the second wave, with the first wave over the Caribbean being too close to land for any real chance for development. Also stronger wind shear continues over these areas.

The Caribbean wave will likely bring higher moisture content to the area by later this week and this weekend leading to higher rain chances across the area.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

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