UPDATE: TUESDAY PM 7/9/2019
Chances for development continue to increase with the NHC upping chances to 90% in 2 days. Invest 92L is now located near Apalachicola and will track into the Gulf by tonight. Gradual development is expected over the next few days as it moves southwest to a position just south of New Orleans by Thursday. The storm will then begin turning northwest while intensifying. The latest forecast models, including the tropical model suite, the GFS and the EURO all agree with landfall in Louisiana as a tropical storm or perhaps a minimal hurricane by this weekend.
UPDATE: MONDAY 7/8/2019
NHC has increased the chances for development up to 80% in 5 days. The area of concern, now located over Georgia, will move into the Gulf in the next day or so and will likely develop into a tropical system as it gets steered toward the west. Computer forecast models continue to hone in on a westward solution, bringing the system across the northern Gulf toward Louisiana and Texas over the next few days. Its future organization is still in question depending on the future track and its proximity to the coastline. Regardless of development, it will be a BIG rainmaker for the northern Gulf coast.
- We are now into July and things will be heating up in the tropics this week. We are watching an area of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley that will track southeast toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico this week. This low pressure area is interesting in that it formed as a result of thunderstorms over land. The energy released from thunderstorm complexes over land areas can often develop a small scale area of low pressure called a MCV or a Mesoscale Covective Vortex. This thunderstorm induced low pressure will drift southward and set u shop over the northeast Gulf this week. With warm waters and light wind shear, there is a chance we could see some tropical development from this MCV this week. From a meteorological standpoint, this is a strange setup in that we don't usually see tropical development from these types of scenarios very often. The NHC has given this area a medium chance for development over the next 5 days. Tropical moisture will be drawn northward into Florida as a result of the southerly flow east of the center, and this will keep rain chances high through the week across the Peninsula.
Right now there are no immediate concerns for significant development or any significant impacts to our area other than more rain. The system will likely remain in the northern Gulf with the biggest impacts north of Tampa westward toward MS/AL depending on where it eventually goes. Either way, we will be keeping an eye on it for you.
CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
