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Invest 90-L not likely to become a depression

Invest 90-L not likely to become a depression
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Posted at 9:07 PM, Jul 23, 2021
and last updated 2021-07-25 22:32:05-04

UPDATE 7/25/21 8 PM

Invest 90-L continues to be a very weak and disorganized system as it meanders to the WNW. It's currently located 150 miles ESE of Jacksonville. Convection is so limited that even with a center of circulation found it still can't be classified as a tropical depression. This will move away from SWFL toward northeast Florida and the Georgia coast. This system continues to have a MODERATE chance for further development before it makes its way on land late Monday.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 7/24/21 8 PM

The National Hurricane Center investigated Invest 90-L this evening and hurricane hunters were able to find a center of circulation, but the lack of convection does not allow them to classify this as a tropical depression. Forecast models still show a large spread in possible solutions on where it could go, but it looks like all models take this west or north away from SWFL. This will take it across the peninsula Monday with higher chances for showers and storms to our north.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 7/24/21 8 AM

Not much has changed with Invest 90L. The National Hurricane Center maintains a 50% chance of development in 5 days as it spins off the Florida East Coast. Forecast models still show a large spread in possible solutions on where it could go. Some take it east, some take it west into the Gulf. I am leading toward the western solution....as the Bermuda High builds into the area by the middle of next week. This will take it across the peninsula through Monday with higher chances for showers and storms through Monday.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

FIRST UPDATE 7/23/21 8PM

Showers and storms associated with an upper level trough just off the Florida East Coast has a MEDIUM chance for development in 5 Days. The most likely timeframe would be sometime later this weekend before it drifts over the Florida Peninsula. There is some model disagreement as to where it will go eventually, but the majority have it moving into the eastern Gulf next week as the Bermuda High strengthens and moves it westward. Significant development of this system is UNLIKELY due to its proximity with land, wind shear and dry air...all negatives for development.

Either way, it promises to bring higher rain chances to South Florida this weekend into early next week as it moves by. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3" will be possible by Monday.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY


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