The National Hurricane Center is tracking two weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean, with one potentially bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend.
Caribbean-Bound System Shows Development Potential
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.
The formation chance through 48 hours is 0%, while the seven-day formation chance sits at 30%. The next named storm will be "Melissa".
Once the system becomes better organized, then we'll have a better idea of where it may track. As of now, it does NOT pose a threat to the Gulf Coast.
In the North Atlantic
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located well off the coast of the Northeast United States. There is a slight chance that the system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early next week.
The formation chances for this system remain low at 10% for both the 48-hour and seven-day periods.
The Caribbean Sea will be a hot-spot in the final six weeks of hurricane season.
In late October and November, most development takes place in the Caribbean Sea. That's because wind shear weakens in this basin while it increases over the Atlantic.
Furthermore, sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean remain quite warm through November, making it a hot-spot for potential development.
The season seems really calm. Is it close to "average?"
For the Gulf and Caribbean, the season has been exceptionally inactive. For these two basins in particular, this is the least active season since 1991. But, with development in the Atlantic, and many "fish storms," the season is on par for average to this point.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
