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Tracking Lorenzo and potential development later this month

The tropics are quiet close to home.
Tropical Outlook
Posted
and last updated

Lorenzo, the 12th named storm of the season, will stay in the Atlantic and not threaten land.

Lorenzo continues to weaken. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate within a few days.

No additional development is forecast through the next seven days.

Tropical Outlook

Beyond the next seven days, we'll be focused on the Caribbean Sea.

In late October and November, most development takes place in the Caribbean Sea. That's because wind shear weakens in this basin while it increases over the Atlantic.

Furthermore, sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean remain quite warm through November, making it a hotspot for potential development.

The season seems really calm. Is it close to "average?"

For the Gulf and Caribbean, the season has been exceptionally inactive. For these two basins in particular, this is the least active season since 1991. But, with development in the Atlantic, and many "fish storms," the season is on par for average to this point.

The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.