FINAL UPDATE 9/17/20 11 AM:
Sally has become post tropical, but is still bringing several inches of rain to Georgia and the Carolinas. Sally is currently located near Atlanta and will continue to move to the east eventually moving out into the Atlantic.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/17/20 5 AM:
Tropical Depression Sally is still producing torrential rainfall over eastern Alabama and Western and Central Georgia as it moves northeast at 12mph.
This is the last advisory that will be issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Sally.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/16/20 11 PM:
Sally is now a depression and will continue to bring heavy rainfall to Georgia and the Carolinas. Flooding will be likely for the Atlanta Metro into the Greenville-Spartanburg area into Thursday morning and into Charlotte by Thursday afternoon. 6-10" of rain can be expected for much of the South Carolina Upstate.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/16/20 5 PM:
Sally has winds of 60 mph and is just north of Andalusia AL headed northeast a little faster now at 7 mph. Torrential rainfall continues with flash flooding and an isolated tornado threat east of the center into western Georgia. Further weakening will continue tonight with heavy rain approaching Auburn-Opelika-Phenix City AL overnight, then Atlanta by Thursday morning with a flood threat.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/16/20 3 PM:
Sally is down to tropical storm status and further weakening is expected through this evening and tonight. The heavy rain threat though is not over and flash flooding will continue across south and east Alabama, western & north Georgia and the central Florida Panhandle through tonight.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/16/20 11 AM:
Sally is weakening now that it's moved inland with the center over Santa Rosa Co. near Milton. Winds are down to around 80 mph with the core of hurricane-force winds encompassing Escambia, Santa Rosa, and a portion of western Okaloosa Co. The storm will continue northward into Alabama near Andalusia by this afternoon likely as a strong tropical storm bringing the threat for more rain and wind to areas farther inland. Historic flash flooding is occurring across the area with some locations seeing over 30" of rainfall like Tiger Point FL at 36".
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/16/20 8 AM:
Sally remains a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 100mph as it slowly moves NNE at 3mph.
Pensacola, FL continues to be under the worst of the storm on the eastern eyewall.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/16/20 6 AM:
Sally has made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama at 5:45 AM as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 105 mph and a minimum central pressure of 965 mb.
This comes exactly 16 years to the day that Hurricane Ivan in 2004 made landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama as a major category 3 hurricane with winds of 120mph
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/16/20 1 AM:
Winds are now up to 100 mph making it a Cat 2 once again. Pressure is down to 970 mb.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/16/20 12 AM:
Winds are now up to 90 mph. Sally is strengthening with pressure down to 971. The storm is still hours from landfall, projected in south Baldwin Co. AL near Orange Beach to Perdido Key FL.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/15/20 11 PM:
Winds are up to 85 mph as it edges closer to the coast. The pressure is down in the 970s indicating strengthening has occurred in the last few hours. Landfall is expected early Wednesday morning between Orange Beach AL and Pensacola Beach FL. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall, storm surge will continue to be hazards in
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/15/20 5 PM:
Winds are at 85 mph and is now moving due north toward the Baldwin Co. coast in Alabama. Tropical storm conditions have spread well inland and is now affecting areas from southeast LA to the western FL panhandle. The storm will continue moving toward the coast tonight into Wednesday with torrential rainfall, strong winds, surge and a low tornado threat. Over 20" of rain is possible in some areas near the coast as the slow moving nature of the storm allows for such big rainfall totals.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/15/20 8 AM:
Sally is maintaining winds of 85 mph and is fighting about 20-30 kts of upper-level wind shear from the southwest. There have been several bursts of thunderstorms near the center through the night and this morning but they are failing to wrap completely around the center to close off the eyewall. The storm will slowly move north toward the coast tonight into Wednesday. A prolonged period of sustained tropical storm force and low-end hurricane force winds can be expected near the coast along with over 20" of rainfall. Significant flooding is expected and a prolonged fetch off the Gulf will bring storm surge to the AL/FL coasts. Tornadoes will be possible in rain bands east of the center. The storm should weaken quickly once it moves onshore, but it will produce heavy rain along its path all the way into the Carolinas.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/15/20 8 AM:
Sally is nearly stalled this morning only moving NW at 2mph. This will bring historic flooding with extreme life threatening flash flooding through Wednesday along the norther Gulf Coast.
A tornado watch has also been issued for the Florida panhandle and the gulf coast of Alabama and Mississippi.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/14/20 5 PM:
Winds are now up to 100 making it a Cat 2. Forecast track has shifted east a bit more and now brings it into Pascagoula MS/Mobile AL and Dauphin Island, AL as a Cat 2 on Wednesday. More strengthening is possible. The storm surge and flooding threat from this storm will be SIGNIFICANT. The slow moving nature means that at least 20" of rainfall could fall in some areas, with some spots seeing over 25". That will create devastating flooding across the AL/MS Gulf coast into NW Florida. Surge up to 9ft is possible in Mobile Bay
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/14/20 1230 PM:
Sally has winds of 90 mph in what is likely a period of rapid intensification for the storm. Further strengthening is expected today.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/14/20 12 PM:
Sally is now a hurricane with winds of 85 mph after hurricane hunters found the storm stronger this morning. The storms inner core is becoming more defined and with wind shear that has plagued the storm over the last day or so lessens, further intensification will be possible in the next 24 hours.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/14/20 11 AM:
Sally is slowly edging toward the mouth of the Mississippi River with tropical storm conditions expected to spread onto the coast in NW Florida from Panama City westward to Pensacola this afternoon where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Hurricane Warnings have been extended east to include coastal Baldwin Co. AL for Orange Beach, Fort Morgan & Gulf Shores. Storm surge on the order of 5 to 8 ft will be possible for coastal Alabama and Mississippi and 1-3 ft for the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts in NW Florida. Prolonged southeast winds will bring the surge up to 11 ft across Southeast Lousiana. Rainfall totals will exceed 20" in some areas due to the slow movement of the storm leading to potentially historic flooding for the area. The tornado threat will increase later today into tonight as rain bands spread onshore and the wind shear profile becomes more favorable for rotating storms within those bands.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/14/20 8AM:
Sally is a little stronger as it moves slowly WNW over the north central Gulf of Mexico. The storm is forecast to become a Hurricane later on today and is likely to produce life threatening storm surge, hurricane force winds and flash flooding along portions of the northern Gulf Coast later on today into tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak sustained winds of 49 mph and a gust to 58 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/13/20 11 PM
Tropical Storm Sally hasn't changed much since the last advisory, but the cone has shifted toward the east. This track shows Sally making landfall east of New Orleans which means they would not encounter the life threatening storm surge from the storm. That surge is expected to affect the coast of Mississippi, Alabama, and possibly the western panhandle of Florida. Sally is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane and should make landfall along the Gulf Coast early Tuesday.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/13/20 5 PM
Tropical Storm Sally is a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained wind of 60 mph. Rain and storms continue to move in to southwest Florida and will become more scattered tonight. Another inch is possible before Sally finally moves away from SWFL. Wind in Southwest Florida has subsided to 5-15 mph and should be light tonight and Monday. Sally is moving to the WNW at 9 mph and is expected to become a hurricane Monday and potentially make landfall in the New Orleans area sometime Tuesday. Significant storm surge is likely in low lying areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama on Tuesday with the possibility of 10 or more inches of rain in that region.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/13/20 11 AM
Sally continues to strengthen, with winds now up to 60 mph. Track forecast remains mostly unchanged and is still expected to make landfall on Tuesday in southeast Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm will dump upwards of 10-15" of rain across the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, with a significant storm surge for a highly storm-surge prone area. The eastern edge of the steady moderate to heavy rainfall continues in SWFL this morning and will gradually taper off in coverage and intensity by this afternoon as Sally moves away from the Florida West Coast.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/13/20 8 AM
Tropical Storm Sally has strengthened this morning with winds of 50 mph. The storm will continue moving across the Gulf over the next two days and head toward landfall in LA/MS by Tuesday possibly as a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. There is an outside chance of a Cat 3 landfall. Heavy rainfall will continue across SWFL today before tapering off tonight into Monday. Areas of heavy rain will continue to Monday but it won't be as widespread as the weekend rain.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/12/20 11 PM
Tropical Storm Sally is still packing wind of 40 mph, but has now started a movement to the WNW at 8 mph. Central pressure has lowered to 1003 mb which does indicate some strengthening of the system. Another 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall across parts of Southwest Florida before Sally moves away from our area Sunday evening. Wind speed of 10-20 mph can be expected through Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph. Sally should become a hurricane early next week as its expected to make landfall near New Orleans sometime Tuesday.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/12/20 5 PM
Tropical Storm Sally continues to have maximum sustained wind of 40 mph and is moving toward the west at 7 mph. Light to moderate rain continues in southern Collier county with isolated showers for the rest of Southwest Florida. A breezy east wind will remain with us for the rest of the evening. Expect wind speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph through early tonight. Rainfall amounts are only expected to be around a quarter to a half inch with the exception of extreme southern communities. Over an inch of rain could fall through tonight in southern Collier county. Sally will turn toward the WNW and should strengthen early next week into a Category 1 hurricane which could make landfall in New Orleans sometime Tuesday.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/12/20 2 PM
Tropical Depression 19 has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally. Maximum sustained wind is 40 mph and it is moving to the west at 7 mph. Its currently located off the coast of Monroe county of Southwest Florida's coast and will continue to move away from our area. A tropical storm watch is in effect off Southwest Florida's coast for the remainder of the day. Sally is expected to remain a tropical storm over the next few days before strengthening into a hurricane next week. It's expected to make landfall somewhere near New Orleans late Tuesday. The next update will be issued at 5 pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/12/20 11 AM
Tropical Depression #19 is looking a little more organized and is currently 40 miles southeast of Naples. It's slowly moving westward with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The biggest change in the forecast track is the intensity as the system is now expected to become a hurricane in the next 2-3 days. Sally is the next name on our 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List. It's still a little too early to tell where the storm could make landfall, but it looks to be headed toward the Louisiana or Mississippi coastline. However winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
UPDATE 9/12/20 8 AM
The latest update shows Tropical Depression #19 is near Naples in Southwest Florida. There are no Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings in place for our area, but the system could still produce heavy rain, possible flooding, and windy conditions. Maximum sustained winds are currently up to 35 mph with gusts being even higher. The system is expected to strengthen and become a Tropical Storm over the Gulf by tonight. From there, the system is on track to move through the Gulf and reach the Louisiana area by Tuesday.
FOX 4 FORECASTER LAUREN PETRELLI
UPDATE 9/12/20 5 AM
The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued along the southeastern coast of Florida as Tropical Depression #19 continues to move over South Florida this morning bringing heavy rainfall along the east coast with gusty winds. The system is expected to become a Tropical Storm over the Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move across South Florida this morning, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and then move northwestward over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/11/20 11 PM
TD 19 is nearing the coast near Miami. It will move across South Florida tonight and Saturday before moving back out over the Gulf by Saturday night. The storm will bring a threat for locally heavy rainfall through the day Saturday into Saturday night. There will be a low threat for isolated tornadoes east of the center. The storm will move north toward the northern Gulf coast into next week with a second landfall as a strong tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane by mid-week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/11/20 5 PM
Tropical Depression #19 has formed off the Florida Coast this afternooon. The forecast track takes it west across the peninsula Saturday and into the Gulf on Sunday into next week where further strengthening can be expected.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/11/20 3 PM
The latest forecast models bring the system through the Keys and across extreme South Florida on Saturday then into the Gulf by later Saturday into Sunday. The greatest threat for any heavy rainfall with this system will be Saturday afternoon and evening. We could see a continuation of a band of heavy rain on the outer edge of the circulation on Sunday that could extend into coastal areas of SWFL. The tropical environment will promote storms that are very efficient rain-producers, so a large amount of rain will fall in a short period of time.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
FIRST UPDATE 9/11/20 12 PM
We are closely monitoring what appears to be a broad area of rotation trying to develop near the Bahamas early Friday afternoon. NHC has increased the chances for development to HIGH for a tropical cyclone to develop as it bypasses Florida and heads into the Gulf. The storm will bring an increased chance for rain to South Florida this weekend with areas of locally heavy rainfall possible. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for mainly coastal areas of SWFL in anticipation of this heavy rainfall that could lead to some flooding concerns this weekend.
The system will encounter more favorable conditions in the Gulf as it heads west and we could see a tropical depression form near Florida tonight or Saturday. Aside from the heavy rain threat, the chances for any significant impacts here area LOW.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
