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Delta becomes a non-tropical low. This will be the final update

Delta becomes a non-tropical low. This will be the final update
Delta
Posted at 5:12 PM, Oct 04, 2020
and last updated 2020-10-10 17:09:02-04

UPDATE 10/10/20 5 PM

Delta is now a remnant low over northwest Mississippi and only has a maximum sustained wind of 30 mph. It continues to move to the northeast and will bring rain to the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into tonight, then move toward the mid Atlantic and New England states Sunday and Monday. 4 to 6 inches of rain are possible in the Carolinas and Tennessee Valley with 1 to 3 inches expected in the mid Atlantic States. This will be the last update on this system.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/10/20 8 AM

Tropical Storm Delta is now over northeastern Louisiana and is expected to move toward the northeast through the rest of the day. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a tropical depression later today. The storm should cross northern Mississippi and move into the Tennessee Valley later today and Sunday.

UPDATE 10/10/20 5 AM

Delta is now a tropical storm as it continues across Louisiana. The storm is bringing tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains to portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The storm is expected to continue to weaken eventually becoming a tropical depression later today. Even though Delta is forecast to dissipate near Kentucky, the moisture associated with its remnants will continue to impact the northeast through early next week.

UPDATE 10/9/20 11 PM

This will probably be the last advisory where Delta is a hurricane as it is weakening rapidly. Its moving to the NNE at 15 mph toward Alexandria. Delta will be reduced to a tropical depression sometime Saturday, but not before it dumps 10 or more inches of rain in parts of Louisiana. Delta will turn northeastward and move into the Tennessee valley, the mid Atlantic states, and southern New England over the next couple days.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/9/20 8 PM

Hurricane Delta has officially made landfall in SW Louisiana as a category 2 storm. Delta has weakened a bit now that its over land and now has maximum sustained wind of 90 mph as it moves to the NNE at 14 mph. Storm surge has been reported to be at least 7 feet along the Louisiana coast with 10 to 15 inches of rain expected. Delta will weaken rapidly as it moves over central and northeast Louisiana as a tropical storm. Then Delta will weaken into a depression as it is expected to bring several inches of rain into the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/9/20

Delta has weakened a bit more since the last update with 105mph winds. Pressure has also risen. It is making landfall now along the LA coast with bands of heavy rain & strong winds. Power outages are being reported in areas as far west as TX. Life-threatening storms surge & hurricane force winds will remain along Delta's track this evening & overnight as it moves NNE at a faster pace after landfall.

Delta is impacting the very same area that Hurricane Laura did only 6 weeks ago! That has never happened in the same season... this is a record.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/9/20 2PM

Delta has weakened to 110mph winds this afternoon due to cooler water & increasing wind shear. It is expected to remain a cat. 2 at landfall early this evening. Even though it is a bit weaker, it is still very powerful & is expected to produce life-threatening storm surge & hurricane force winds along its path for the next few hours.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/9/20 11AM

Hurricane Delta has weakened just a bit from earlier this morning but still remains a cat. 3 with 115mph winds. It is forecast to make landfall around 6:30 this evening along the Louisiana coast, very close to the same area that was hit by Laura only 6 weeks ago. Wind shear & cooler water temps may weaken it more before landfall but forecasts keep it as a cat. 3, then quickly weaken it after landfall.

Life-threatening storm surge of 7-11 feet & hurricane force winds will move along with Delta. Heavy rainfall will produce flash flooding along with minor to major river flooding further inland. The next advisory will be at 2pm.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/9/20 8 AM:

No major changes at 8AM. Delta is still a major hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast of Louisiana.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/9/20 5 AM:

Major Hurricane Delta headed toward southwestern Louisiana and is expected to bring hurricane conditions and life threatening storm surge to portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and NOAA buoy 42002 is 953 mb.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/8/20 11 PM

Hurricane Delta strengthened a bit over the past few hours now with a maximum sustained wind of 120 mph. Central pressure lowered yet again to 955 mb as it continues to move to the NNW at 12 mph. Delta is expected to make landfall in western Louisiana Friday evening as either a category 2 or 3 storm. Life threatening storm surge of 7-11 feet are possible east of landfall along the Louisiana coast. Delta will weaken into a tropical storm in central Louisiana and could dump up to 15 inches of rain before moving to the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/8/20 8 PM

Hurricane Delta continues to hold on to major hurricane status with wind of 115 mph, but it has now started moving north of northwest at 12 mph. This trend will continue as Delta should turn more toward the north tomorrow then northeast right before making landfall. Central pressure has lowered to 956 mb and further strengthening is possible through Friday. Hours before landfall Delta will encounter strong wind shear and cooler water which should cause slight weakening but Delta is still expected to make landfall as a category 2 or 3 hurricane late Friday afternoon. Storm surge of 7-11 feet are possible along the coast of Louisiana with 10-15 inches of rain possible.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/8/20 5PM

Hurricane Delta has strengthen quickly this afternoon to once again become a cat. 3 with 115mph winds. The environment is expected to remain favorable for additional strengthening overnight & it could reach winds of 125mph on Friday. The current track takes it very close to Laura's landfall only six weeks ago, on the SW coast of LA.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/8/20 2PM

The pressure has dropped slightly this afternoon, down to 966mb which indicates strengthening although the winds have not increased since 11AM. Delta is expected to become a cat. 3 tomorrow.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/8/20 11AM

Delta has strengthened this morning with winds now up to 105mph as it has become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for the next 12-24 hrs. which will allow it to become a cat. 3 by Friday. Hurricane conditions & life-threatening storm surge should begin tomorrow along portions of the northern Gulf coast. In the 12 hrs. before landfall, strong SW shear should cause some weakening with rapid weakening expected after landfall.

Impacts to SWFL or the west coast of FL will be an increase in rip current risk.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/8/20 8 AM:

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft currently investigating Delta.

No major changes with the 8AM intermediate advisory. A change with watch/warnings include the discontinuation of a Storm Surge Watch east of Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

Delta is still a category 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph moving NW at 15mph.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/8/20 5 AM:

Hurricane Delta moving northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane conditions and life threatening storm surge expected to begin along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is forecast when Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/7/20 11 PM:

Not much has changed with Delta over the past few hours. Maximum sustained wind is still at 90 mph, but it has taken a slightly westward turn and is now moving to the WNW at 17 mph. Central pressure lowered just a bit to 972 mb. The cloud pattern looks better now compared to a few hours ago so it appears as though Delta is starting to strengthen. Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for strengthening of Delta for the next day or which means Delta will most likely reach major hurricane status once again. Delta is forecast to weaken to a category 2 storm before making landfall Friday evening in western Louisiana. We are now within the 36 hour window where hurricane and tropical storm force wind and storm surge is expected along parts of the Gulf coast so storm surge, hurricane, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Gulf coast from extreme eastern Texas to the Mississippi coast.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/7/20 8 PM:

Hurricane Delta has strengthened a little over the past few hours, but is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane overnight and into Thursday. Maximum sustained wind is now at 90 mph and the minimum central pressure has lowered to 973 mb as it continues to move northwest at 17 mph. Delta is now in an environment favorable for strengthening with low wind shear and warm water. Slight weakening is expected before making landfall in western Louisiana Friday. No warnings have been issued yet since tropical storm and hurricane conditions will not occur within the next 36 hours. However, storm surge, hurricane, and tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with storm surge watches in effect eastward to the Alabama/Florida border.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/7/20 5 PM:

Hurricane Delta has now weakened to a category 1 storm with maximum sustained wind of 85 mph. Minimum central pressure continued to rise over the last few hours and is now at 977 mb. Delta is still moving to the northwest at 17 mph. Hurricane hunters determined these statistics in regards to Delta as they flew through the storm this afternoon. Delta's wind field has also increased over the past several hours. This should continue as it moves toward the Gulf coast. Rapid intensification is expected once again as Delta moves into an area with low wind shear and warm water temperatures. Delta is expected to become a major hurricane before moving north on Friday due to an upper level trough moving east over Texas. Wind shear is expected to increase and Gulf waters will be cooler as it approaches the coast which means Delta should weaken a bit before making landfall. The forecast cone hasnt changed much since this morning and it appears as though Delta will make landfall in western Louisiana. Storm surge watches have been extended to the Alabama/Florida border since the last advisory. Otherwise storm surge, hurricane, and tropical storm watches continue to be in effect for the eastern Texas and Louisiana coasts. Warnings will be issued 36 hours before conditions are expected along the Gulf coast.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/7/20 2 PM:

Hurricane Delta has weakened a even more over the past few hours, but still packs maximum sustained wind of 100 mph. Delta has now re-emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico and continues to move rather quickly toward the northwest at 17 mph. Hurricane Delta is expected to strengthen over the next day and a half due to warm Gulf water and low wind shear. Once Delta moves to the northern Gulf southwest wind shear will pick up and a bit cooler water will cause the hurricane to weaken a bit, but Delta could still be a major category 3 hurricane when it makes landfall. The cone continues to move a bit westward which would have landfall occurring in western Louisiana sometime Friday afternoon. Storm surge, hurricane, and tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 10/7/20 11AM:

Hurricane Delta is about ready to move off the northern Yucatan coast & into the Gulf of Mexico. Winds remain at 110mph which is a cat. 2 but conditions will be very favorable over the warm Gulf waters & it is expected to re-strengthen to a cat. 3. As Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, SW wind shear is expected to increase along with cooler water. Weakening is expected before landfall. However, Delta should still be a major hurricane with life-threatening storm surge & strong winds along the northwestern & northern Gulf coast.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/7/20 8 AM:

Delta bringing a life threatening storm surge and strong winds to the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, has recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph and a gust to 75 mph after the passage of the center over that location.
A wind gust to 64 mph was recently reported on Cozumel, Mexico.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/7/20 7 AM:

Hurricane Delta makes landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos.

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos around 5:30 AM CDT with estimated maximum winds of 110 mph, a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in the center.
A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak sustained winds of 84 mph with a gust to 106 mph.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/7/20 5 AM:

Weather quickly deteriorating over the coastline of the northeast Yucatan as Hurricane Delta approaches. Life threatening storm surge and strong winds will arrive in Cozumel and Cancun in the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/6/20 11 PM

Delta has weakened with winds now down to 130 mph. More weakening is expected tonight as the storm moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. Restrengthening is expected as it moves back over the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday. The track forecast hasn't changed with landfall expected late Friday and early Saturday on the Louisiana Gulf Coast near Morgan City.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/6/20 5PM

Delta's winds have now increased to 145mph making in a mid-range cat. 4 hurricane. More strengthening is expected before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow. It should weaken a bit over land but then strengthen again when it is over the warm Gulf waters. But as it nears the northern Gulf coast, increasing southwesterly wind shear & cooler shelf water should help reduce its wind speed.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/6/20 2:00 PM:

Winds now up to 140. The pressure is at 956 mb so strengthening appears to be leveling off for now.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/6/20 11:20 AM:

As I just stated...beastmode. Hurricane hunters have now recorded winds of 130 mph with higher gusts making it a Cat 4. Pressure is down to 954. The storm is in an area that historically causes hurricanes to rapidly intensify so this is not surprising at all. More strengthening is possible with winds in the 140 range possible later today.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/6/20 11 AM:

Hurricane Delta is in full beastmode with pressures continuing to drop and winds increasing to 115 mph making it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The storm will continue to intensify through the day, with max winds possibly reaching 140 by Wednesday as it nears the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. A significant hurricane impact is expected for Cancun and Cozumel before it enters the Gulf. The storm will then make a turn toward the northeast, and the timing of this turn will determine where it makes landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. At this time, the consensus is landfall will occur along the Louisiana Coast from Vermillion Bay eastward to Terrebonne Parish with a high impact event possible for Baton Rouge, Morgan City and New Orleans. This storm could pose the most significant storm surge threat the area has seen since Hurricane Isaac and Hurricane Katrina. Some weakening is expected as the waters near the coast of LA and MS are cooler into the upper 70s as opposed to where it is now (mid 80s). This combined with some increasing shear due to an approaching upper level trough should trim back the intensity some, however unlike Sally, this storm will be moving along and won't remain over the cooler water long enough to make a significant difference in the impact of the storm. It is still expected to make landfall as at least a Cat 2 with winds around 100-110 mph by early Saturday with the potential for damaging winds as far inland as I-20 in central MS.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/6/20 8AM:

Hurricane Delta continues to strengthen this morning. The storm now has winds of 110mph with gusts of 115mph.

On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 962 mb.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/6/20 5AM:

Delta has rapidly intensified to a Category 2 Hurricane this morning with winds of 100mph as it moves WNW at 15mph. Extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are expected for the Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula starting early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/5/20 11 PM

Delta is intensifying with winds at 80 mph as the latest pass from the hurricane hunter aircraft currently investigating the storm. Pressure has dropped through the afternoon and evening and is now around 977 mb. The area where Delta is currently located is historically known for rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, with Mitch from 1998, Wilma from 2005 and Gilbert from 1988 coming to mind. The light shear, high water temperature environment is highly conducive to intensification, possibly rapid through the night into Tuesday. The official forecast brings it toward the coast of the northeast Yucatan by Wednesday and toward the Louisiana coast on Friday afternoon as a Cat 2. Some weakening is expected as it approaches the U.S. coast due to cooler waters and increasing wind shear.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/5/20 8 PM

Delta is now a hurricane after a period of rapid strengthening this afternoon and evening. The storm is now headed toward Cancun and Cozumel, possibly as a major hurricane then it will move into the Gulf by mid-week where water temps are in the mid 80s. Strengthening will continue through mid-week, then the storm will encounter cooler water and some wind shear as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast late this week, on Friday where weakening will occur before landfall. Delta is still expected to be a significant hurricane when it strikes the U.S. later this week.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/5/20 5PM

TS Delta has strengthened rapidly this afternoon as winds are now up to 70mph. There may be an eye forming as storms are now wrapping around the center. It is located in a very favorable environment with warm water temps & little vertical shear. It is now expected to become a cat. 3 as it moves toward the Gulf.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 10/5/20 2 PM:

Delta is strengthening with winds now up to 60 mph. Further strengthening is expected through tonight and it is expected to become a hurricane sometime Tuesday. the next full update will come at 5 PM.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/5/20 11 AM:

Tropical Storm Delta will continue to strengthen as it heads through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf by Tuesday. The storm is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday with the potential for it to become a Cat 2 or a Cat 3 as it moves through the Gulf. Impact as a Cat 2 is appearing increasingly likely for the LA coast east to Mississippi and possibly Alabama again, an area that was just hit hard by Hurricane Sally. The good news is that this time, this storm will be moving faster than Sally did, so a long-duration event is not anticipated at this time, but it will be moving slow enough for a threat for more flooding rainfall and significant storm surge east of the center. The cone extends from Lake Charles LA east to Fort Walton Beach FL so landfall could occur anywhere in this area by Friday. Little to no impacts are expected here in SWFL barring an unforeseen dramatic shift east of the storm track.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 10/5/20 8AM:

Tropical Depression 26 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 10/5/20 5AM:

Tropical Depression #26 is getting better organized and is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move away from Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 11 PM 10/4/20:

Tropical Storm Depression #26 has formed south of Jamaica with maximum sustained wind of 35 mph. It's moving toward the WNW at 9 mph with minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. Further strengthening is expected over the next few days as it encounters an area of low wind shear and a moist atmosphere. This storm will be named Delta once it reaches tropical storm criteria and is expected to become a hurricane in the northern Gulf the middle of this week. It appears as though it will make landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast sometime Friday possibly near New Orleans. We will continue to monitor any changes to this system, but it looks like Delta will have little or no impact on our weather here in southwest Florida.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8 PM 10/4/20:

Potential Tropical Cyclone #26 is 75 miles south of Jamaica and is moving to the WNW at 10 mph. Maximum sustained wind is 35 mph, but does not have enough of a well defined circulation to call this a depression. This system is looking better organized and should become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Delta tonight or Monday. Northeast wind shear will diminish overnight as PTC #26 remains over warm water. There's plenty of moisture for it to work with as well so this system is expected to strengthen rapidly as it moves toward the western tip of Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear will increase with PTC #26 once it enters the northern Gulf of Mexico, but by that time it is expected to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane. This system will turn more toward the north toward the end of next week and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast. The forecast cone currently has PTC #26 making landfall near New Orleans. It appears as though the storm will stay well to the west of southwest Florida.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

FIRST UPDATE 5 PM 10/4/20:

Invest 92L has been designated as PTC #26 and advisories have been issued. The latest storm track from the NHC brings the storm through the Yucatan Channel through early this week. The storm will move into the Gulf by Tuesday and is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf coast later this week, possibly as early as Friday. The storm will NOT pose a threat to South Florida, based on the latest data as high pressure ridging aloft will protect the peninsula from a direct strike. The storm could approach the northern Gulf coast as a Cat 2, areas that have been hard from earlier strikes from Laura, Sally and Marco. We will continue to monitor the situation through the week.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

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2020 STORM NAMES

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HURRICANE TERMS TO KNOW

Tropical Storm WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm WARNING: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.

Hurricane WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane WARNING: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.