The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its routine update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook as we enter the historical peak period of the season. Mid-August through October is considered the peak of hurricane season.
Matthew Rosencrans with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released the numbers during a press conference Wednesday saying we can now expect 15 to 21 named storms, of which 7 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 those being major hurricanes. This forecast does include storms we have already seen this 2021 season.
All categories saw an increase in their numbers except "major hurricanes expected." Rosencrans continued to explain that we can expect an "above-average season" however he explained this season likely won't be as active as last year due to several factors.
He said the current "quiet period" thanks to thick plumes of Saharan Dust brought us a little closer to normal. He went on to explain that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are currently close to average.
Rosencrans said his team did take into account the possibility of a La Niña phase developing later in the season. This means we could see activity well into the month of November which would be similar to the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.