NHC is keeping a close eye on the potential for tropical development in the first couple of weeks of October. It has been very quiet recently in the Atlantic due to overall less than favorable conditions for development after an active September. The peak of hurricane season was on September 10th, but typically South Florida sees the majority of its hurricane strikes during the second half of the season, particularly in October.
Several factors are coming together for this more favorable period, including a more favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation ( MJO). The MJO leads to large scale rising motion in the atmosphere whenever it is located, and during this time, it will be most favored in the Atlantic Basin. This combined with overall lower surface pressures and high water temperatures in this area could lead to rapid development of any thunderstorms that can organize in this region.
The overall pattern favors any storm that develops in this area to get pulled northward toward the southern Gulf or western Caribbean, due to a large trough of low pressure that is expected over the central and eastern U.S. during this time. Timing will be everything as this pattern will ultimately determine where the eventual storm eventually goes, which no one knows at this point.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
We aren't finished with hurricane season yet so remain vigilant and prepared.
Have your plan ready and in place in case we face a threat before the end of the season.
Make sure your hurricane preparedness kit is stocked and ready to go.
Stay in tune with updates and avoid unverified sources or hearsay on the internet (DON'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ).
Monitor weather updates from FOX 4 in the next couple of weeks for any further updates.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
