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Marco Has Become A Remnant Low, Last Advisory Issued

Marco Has Become A Remnant Low, Last Advisory Issued
Posted at 1:06 PM, Aug 20, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-25 09:08:07-04

8/25/2020 5AM:

Marco has weakened to a remnant low this morning and the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the system.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts and additional weakening is expected, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco is forecast to dissipate by early Wednesday, if not sooner.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

8/24/2020 11 PM:

Marco is now a tropical depression and will dissipate in the next day or so as it moves west along the Louisiana coast.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/24/2020 7 PM:

Marco made landfall near the mouth of the MS River in southeast Louisiana. The storm will move inland overnight with weakening expected through Tuesday.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/24/2020 5 PM:

Marco will move inland tonight after taking a beating from strong wind shear through the day Monday. Strong upper-level winds have decoupled the surface circulation from the middle and top of the storm, so weakening has occurred throughout the day. Further weakening will occur tonight as the storm moves inland across SE LA with a continued threat for heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes across LA, MS, and AL.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/24/2020 1``1 AM:

Marco is being ripped apart by strong southwesterly wind shear aloft. The storm has weakened considerably since last night as anticipated and will approach the LA coast later today. A storm surge of 4-6 feet will be possible for much of southeast LA as it arrives and 3-5 feet for the MS Gulf Coast. Very heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will be possible east of the center today in rain bands. The storm will turn west and move along the LA coast through Tuesday ahead of Laura's arrival Wednesday.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/24/2020 8AM:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

8/24/2020 5 AM:

As Marco weakens Hurricane Warnings have been discontinued for the Gulf Coast but dangerous storm surge still anticipated. Tropical Storm Marco is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph and Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through Tuesday night.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

8/23/2020 11 PM:

Marco has weakened back to a tropical storm as it nears the coast of Louisiana. Further weakening is expected as the wind shear will continue until landfall on Monday.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/23/2020 8 PM:

No changes with this advisory. Full advisory and track update at 11.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/23/2020 5 PM:

Marco still has winds of 75 mph with landfall expected along the LA coast late Monday or early Tuesday. Pressure is down to 991 mb.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/23/2020 1 PM:

Marco has been upgraded to a hurricane with winds of 75 mph. Forecast track remains on track to head to Louisiana for landfall Monday evening.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/23/2020 11 AM:

Marco is near hurricane hurricane strength as it moves toward the Gulf Coast. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn to the northwest by Monday. On the forecast track, Marco will cross the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to become a hurricane later today and be at hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

8/23/2020 5 AM:

Marco's winds are now up to 70 mph as it moves NNW at 13. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for southeast Louisiana from the mouth of the Pearl River west to near Morgan City. The storm is projected to make landfall over Plaquemines Parish in far southeast LA, then turn west across the Atchafalaya Basin. The potential exists for storm surge and significant flooding from rainfall as it moves across South Louisiana on Tuesday.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/22/2020 11 PM:

Marco is stronger than Laura as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The Storm moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. Marco is forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and will approach the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Marco is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane is 994 mb.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

8/22/2020 8 PM:

Marco enters the Gulf of Mexico and now storm surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. Marco is expected to continue moving toward the north-northwest across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is forecast to reach the northern Gulf coast on Monday. After moving inland, Marco is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest and west-northwest Monday night and Tuesday, moving across southern Louisiana and east Texas.

Maximum sustained winds based on preliminary data from the reconnaissance aircraft are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Marco is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or on Sunday. Marco is likely to still be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday. Weakening is forecast to occur while the center moves farther inland Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter plane was 994 mb.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

8/22/2020 5 PM:

Data from the Gulfstream IV NOAA Lear jet that samples that atmosphere around hurricanes was deployed this morning and the data from that flight entered this morning's models. The result was a HUGE eastward shift in many of the models and now the track brings Marco ashore along the Louisiana coast by Monday. This will be TWO DAYS before Laura is expected to arrive from the southeast on Wednesday. If that doesn't say 2020, I don't know what does! Hurricane Watches are now up from Louisiana to Mississippi's Gulf coast with Tropical Storm Watches across the Alabama Gulf Coast.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/22/2020 2 PM:

Marco is now moving through the Yucatan Channel. Winds remain at 65 mph with the pressure holding steady at 992 mb. More strengthening is expected over the next day or so. Full update at 5 PM.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/22/2020 11 AM:

Marco continues to strengthen this morning with winds of 65 mph. The official forecast calls for additional strengthening as an upper-level trough over the western Gulf weakens and lifts north...lessening the shear currently ripping at the north side of Marco. This lighter shear environment, combined with the very warm water in the Gulf should allow for some appreciable strengthening in the next 24-36 hours. The storm will then turn west toward the Texas coast, with a landfall by mid-week near Corpus Christi or areas just north of there around Port Lavaca. Weakening is expected to occur as it approaches the coast as shear will increase once again.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

8/22/2020 8 AM:

Marco a little stronger this morning as data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula, and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles. Marco's center moved just to the west of NOAA buoy 42056, which recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph and a gust to 45 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

8/22/2020 5 AM:

Tropical Storm Marco located in the northwest Caribbean and is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. A northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches Cozumel and Cancun. Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC

UPDATE 11 PM 8/21/20:

Tropical Storm Marco has formed based on recon data from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Will head toward the coast of the Yucatan then emerge into the Gulf by Monday. Forecast track still takes it toward the northern Gulf by the middle of next week as a strong tropical storm.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8 PM 8/21/20:

TD 14 has changed very little since 5pm. Even though it looks disorganized this evening, the NHC is forecasting it to become a tropical storm on Saturday & a hurricane in the Gulf by Monday. The current track takes it toward TX by Tuesday. Next update will be at 11pm.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 5 PM 8/21/20:

TD 14 continues to move northwest around 13 mph. It is headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula and will emerge into the Gulf by Monday. The track will take it NW toward the upper Texas Coast by Tuesday as a strong tropical storm as shear is expected to increase before landfall leading to some weakening. The track was shifted west a tad for this advisory.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 2PM 8/21/20:

No changes from the 11 am update. Next update will be at 5pm.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER

UPDATE 11AM 8/21/20:

The tropical depression is moving west at 18 mph. On the forecast track, the center is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula & weaken as it moves NW. But, it will likely strengthen again when it moves back over water in the Gulf. It's expected to move toward the coast of TX & LA through the weekend into next week. Strengthening is forecast & could become a hurricane eventually but there is quite a bit of uncertainty. This system won't be a threat to Southwest Florida, but we'll be watching its interaction with Tropical Storm Laura closely.

UPDATE 8 AM 8/21/20:

The tropical depression is moving northwest at about 12 mph. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move close to the northern shores of Honduras. It's expected to stay on this track as we head into the weekend. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. From there, it will move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday where it's forecast to become a hurricane. This system won't be a threat to Southwest Florida, but we'll be watching its interaction with Tropical Storm Laura closely.

UPDATE 11 PM 8/20/20

TD14 is close to becoming a tropical storm. It will continue west with a turn toward the north into the Gulf next week. Strengthening into a hurricane expected as it approaches the TX/LA coast early next week.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 5 PM 8/20/20

TD 14 continues west.... hurricane hunters find the center a little farther south. Intensity forecast is uncertain in the near-term due to possible land interaction then a turn toward the north into the Gulf is expected by early next week. Impacts to a portion of the northern Gulf Coast are likely.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

FIRST UPDATE 11 AM 8/20/20

Tropical Depression #14 has formed just off the coast of Nicaragua and is headed west at 21. The storm is expected to turn northwest toward the Yucatan peninsula and into the western Gulf by early next week. The storm may eventually pose a threat to the Texas or Louisiana coasts by next Tuesday. The intensity forecast is uncertain but could potentially approach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane. There is no threat to Florida with this system.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

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