UPDATE 5PM 10/29/20
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta is about to move off the Delaware coast & into the Atlantic. It's forward pace has increased to 55mph to the ENE. Winds are still 50mph & it is expected to maintain strength or even strengthen over the Atlantic.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 2PM 10/29/20
Zeta has now become post-tropical as it is getting caught up in a frontal system. But winds are still at 50mph & it is racing to the ENE at an incredible speed of 53mph. It will move off the coast this evening.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 11AM 10/29/20
Zeta's winds have dropped to 50mph with stronger gusts as it races toward the NE at an amazing 48mph. Two million customers are without power in its path & it is still producing damage late this morning. Zeta is beginning to look extratropical in its appearance due to an approaching front & by this afternoon, it should transition to a frontal low. Zeta is forecast to move off the mid-Atlantic coast by this evening.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 8 AM 10/29/20
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph and a gust to 82 mph was recently reported at Cashiers, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 990 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 5 AM 10/29/20
Zeta is racing through north Georgia near 40mph to the northeast.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Zeta is expected to become a non tropical gale force low later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 988 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 1 AM 10/29/20
High winds continue with the collapsing eyewall of Hurricane Zeta. Right now the core of the storm is moving over Marengo & Clarke Co. AL near Demopolis with several reports of significant wind damage in west central and southwest Alabama. The core of the storm will move between Montgomery & Birmingham and into east Alabama before moving into Georgia early Thursday morning.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 11 PM 10/28/20
Weakening continues, with winds down to 80 mph. The storm is about to cross the AL state line and wikk move into Atlanta before dawn Thursday and Charlotte late Thursday morning. The storm will be offshore of the Atlantic coast by Thursday night.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10 PM 10/28/20
Zeta is weakening with winds down to 85 mph. The storm is near Leakesville MS and is about to cross into Washington County Alabama. The storm motion is NE at 25 mph and this will bring the center near Montgomery in a couple of hours and in the Atlanta Metro area early Thursday morning. Significant storm surge continues for the MS and AL Gulf Coast. The threat for tornadoes will continue north and east of the center overnight.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 5 PM 10/28/20
Zeta is now moving onshore near Cocodrie, LA as a Cat 2 with winds of 110. The storm will rapidly move northward toward New Orleans within the next hour then into the Pine Belt region of South MS after sunset. The storm will be moving so fast that weakening will be slow to occur allowing strong to damaging winds to spread inland across south MS and southwest AL. Storm surge could reach 9ft on the MS Gulf Coast in the next couple of hours.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 3 PM 10/28/20
Zeta continues to intensify with winds now at 110. Landfall is expected near Port Fourchon LA within the next hour.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 11 AM & 2 PM 10/28/20
Zeta has looked more impressive on satellite through the morning with winds now up to 105 mph. The storm is about 6 hours away from landfall as of 2 PM Eastern time. The latest projection has the storm making landfall near Grand Isle LA this evening, then moving inland across SE LA and far SE MS before moving into SW AL. The storm will move quickly tonight through central AL into northwest GA by Thursday morning. Damaging winds can be expected as far north as Atlanta and the Greenville/Spartanburg area of SC. Isolated tornadoes and a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet will be possible, especially on the MS Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals will reach 6” in some areas, but fortunately the quick movement of the storm will prevent a bigger flood threat from materializing.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8 AM 10/28/20
Zeta continues to strengthen this morning and now has a sustained winds of 90mph as it rapidly heads north toward the Gulf Coast.
Some additional strengthening is forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 978 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 5 AM 10/28/20
Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft report that Zeta is strengthening this morning. Life threatening storm surge and strong winds expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast starting this afternoon. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center now calls for Zeta to be a Category 2 Hurricane at landfall with winds near 100mph.
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern Gulf coast this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 982 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 10/27/20 2 AM
Zeta has regained hurricane status and is rapidly moving NW. Further strengthening is expected due to the light shear environment and warm water temperatures. The central pressure has dropped to 988 mb and the forward speed is NW at 15 mph. The tropical storm force wind radii extends outward 140 mi from the center and the hurricane-force wind field has a diameter of about 60 mi.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/27/20 11 PM
Tropical Storm Zeta continues to get better organized with winds back to 70 mph. The storm will likely strengthen a bit more before cooler water and southwesterly shear begin impacting the storm before landfall. The storm is still expected to be fairly stout as it moves onshore Wednesday evening in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi as a Cat 1. The very fast forward motion by this time will send the threat for damaging winds well inland, possibly as far north as Atlanta and Greenville/Spartanburg SC. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Atlanta Metro area in anticipation of these winds arriving in the predawn hours Thursday. Rain fall of 4-6" will be possible near the track with a 5-8 ft surge along the MS Gulf Coast. The tornado threat should increase as wind shear profiles strengthen and become more favorable for rotating storms in the outer bands as Zeta approaches Wednesday afternoon and evening.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/27/20 5PM
Tropical Storm Zeta has not strengthened this afternoon even though it over water in the Gulf. Winds remain at 65mph but it is expected to become a hurricane again before making landfall along the Louisiana coast tomorrow evening. Water temps are favorable along with little wind shear. It is likely to be a cat. 1 at landfall making it the latest hurricane to hit the continental US since 1985.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 11 AM & 2 PM 10/27/20
Zeta is now back over water and will likely restrengthen as it moves north toward the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Hurricane Warnings are now up for the MS Gulf Coast and southeast Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect as far east as the western Florida Panhandle. Storm surge values of 5-8 ft is possible along the MS Gulf Coast and southeast LA as Zeta approaches. Wind gusts over 80 mph will be possible from southeast LA into MS and south Alabama. Landfall is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday in LA and MS then the storm will move quickly inland across south Alabama during the morning hours Thursday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8 AM 10/27/20
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 5 AM 10/27/20
Zeta has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. However, Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 1 AM 10/27/20
Zeta just made landfall north of Tulum around 1210 AM EDT. A sustained wind of 74 mph with a gust to 87 was reported at Playa del Carmen and a wind gust of 79 mph was reported in Cancun. The minimum central pressure is down to 977 mb. Some weakening is expected as it moves over the peninsula tonight with restrengthening expected over the Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 11 PM 10/26/20
Zeta will make landfall shortly on the coast of Mexico as a Cat 1. The storm will move across the peninsula tonight, weakening some then move into the Gulf with a second landfall expected late Wednesday in southeast LA.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
Hurricane Zeta hasn't changed much over the past couple hours and is expected to make landfall in the Yucatan. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. Interaction with land may weaken the storm briefly, but Zeta will have the chance to restrengthen over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Once Zeta starts its northerly and northeasterly turn in the northern Gulf conditions will be less favorable for strengthening. High wind shear and cooler water will cause Zeta to weaken a bit before making landfall potentially in the New Orleans area. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in effect for parts of the Gulf Coast including Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. Zeta will have no impact here in southwest Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 3:10 PM 10/26/20
Zeta is now a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained wind of 80 mph. It is moving northwest at 10 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 981 mb. Zeta may strengthen a bit more before making landfall in the Yucatan this evening. It could weaken a bit over land, but will maintain hurricane status as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. Zeta is expected to weaken a bit before making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast due to high southwest wind shear and cooler water. It appears as though Hurricane Zeta will make landfall as a category 1 storm possibly in the New Orleans area. Zeta poses no threat to southwest Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8 AM 10/26/20
No major changes with Zeta in the 8AM advisory.
Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 992 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 5 AM 10/26/20
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft finds Zeta rapidly strengthening.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 990 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 11 PM 10/25/20
Tropical storm Zeta is finally moving again slowly toward the NNW at 2 mph. It has strengthened once again with maximum sustained wind of 60 mph. It will continue to strengthen over favorable conditions before making landfall in the Yucatan Monday evening as most likely a category 1 hurricane. Once Zeta is in the southern Gulf of Mexico it could strengthen a bit before entering cooler water and an area of high wind shear in the central and northern Gulf. Zeta will continue its northwest motion until it reaches the central Gulf when an upper level low is expected to steer Zeta to the north and then northeast. The forecast cone has Zeta making landfall near New Orleans Wednesday afternoon. Zeta will pose no threat to southwest Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 5 PM 10/25/20
Tropical storm Zeta has strengthened and now has a maximum sustained wind of 50 mph and a pressure that has lowered to 999 mb. Zeta is in a favorable environment for strengthening with warm water and low wind shear and is expected to become a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in the Yucatan. Zeta is still sitting stationary in the northwest Caribbean, but is expected to move toward the northwest. Once in the Gulf of Mexico it will turn more northerly and then northeasterly following a similar track to Delta. Zeta should weaken in the central and northern Gulf of Mexico due to higher southwesterly wind shear and cooler water temperatures. The forecast track shows Zeta making potential landfall as a category 1 storm or possibly a tropical storm somewhere along the Louisiana coast. Hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of the Yucatan and tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of Cuba.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8 AM 10/25/20
Tropical storm Zeta isn't moving much currently but is expected to turn north toward the Yucatan Peninsula later today into Monday. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, the same areas affected by Delta just a few weeks ago. The forecast track eventually takes it to the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle as a strong tropical storm.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 2 AM 10/25/20
T.D. #28 has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Zeta with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph. It is still stationary, but will move northwestward over the next couple days over warm water and an environment with low wind shear. These ingredients are what Zeta needs to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane. This should occur late Monday or Tuesday of next week. The forecast track has Zeta make landfall in Louisiana Wednesday afternoon. It will have no impact here in southwest Florida
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 11 PM 10/24/20
T.D. #28 has strengthened a bit with maximum sustained wind of 35 mph. It is stationary in the northwest Caribbean, but is expected to move toward the northwest close to the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday. Later in the week what will become Zeta is expected to become a hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico. An upper level low will move from the southwest U.S. and help steer this storm toward the north then northeast. Once again the forecast cone shows what will become Zeta making landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast either as a category 1 hurricane or a tropical storm. It looks like this storm will have no impacts to our weather here in southwest Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 5 PM 10/24/20
The broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean has consolidated enough to be considered a tropical depression. Maximum sustained wind is only 30 mph as it drifts toward the northwest. Low shear and warm water should allow the system to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next day or so. It is expected to possibly become a hurricane and then weaken a bit to a tropical storm before once again making potential landfall along the Gulf Coast. The current track has T.D. #28 making landfall somewhere in central Louisiana, but its still too early to tell. Either way it appears as though this system will have no effect on SWFL.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8 AM 10/24/20
Satellite and radar show the area of broad area of low pressure is located just southwest of Grand Cayman Island. The system is showing signs of gradually becoming better organized, with a better defined wind circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next day or so. The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. We could see a bump in our rain chances for the beginning of the work week if the system tracks closer to our coast.
FOX 4 FORECASTER LAUREN PETRELLI
UPDATE 11 PM 10/23/20
Invest 95-L continues to move slightly to the northwest in the western Caribbean and is currently an area of disorganized showers and storms. Environmental conditions will be conducive for further development and a tropical depression could form sometime this weekend. Models aren't in agreement with the track of this wave. It appears it will drift toward the northwest and then move north toward the panhandle of Florida. No model has this wave strengthening significantly over the next few days, but we will monitor the development of this system. It could bring heavy rain to parts of Cuba and south Florida depending on its track.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
FIRST UPDATE 5PM 10/23/20
The area of low pressure just west of Grand Cayman Island has become better organized this afternoon & is now being called Invest 95L. It is located in a favorable environment which favors further development & a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend. It is expected to drift to the NW toward western Cuba by Sunday & then slowly move into the Gulf. Models are not in agreement currently as to what happens with it later next week. Regardless if it develops or not, it will increase moisture across south Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
