There has been no activity in the Gulf since June 30, when Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in eastern Mexico. Furthermore, there have not been any storms in the Caribbean whatsoever this season.
When was the last time we had no activity in the Gulf and Caribbean between June 30 - September 30?
1991. There have been five years since 1950 in which there was no development or activity in the Gulf and/or Caribbean during this time-frame: 1952, 1962, 1968, 1972, and 1991.
But conditions could be changing in October.
Activity tends to pick up in the Gulf and Caribbean during the latter half of the hurricane season, based upon decades of data. We are expecting more activity in October and November in these two basins, but whether or not we feel any impacts in Florida is yet to be seen.
The Climate Prediction Center's Tropical Outlook has placed a low probability of formation in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southwest Gulf in the Bay of Campeche between October 8-14.
Has the season overall been less active?
Though it's been quiet in the Caribbean and Gulf, the season has been close to normal. There have been nine named storms so far this season. Based upon climatology to 1991, that's just one shy of the average to this point in the season. Of those nine, four have become hurricanes and of those, three have been major, all within one of the 30 year-average.
The season officially ends on November 30.
CURRENT STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC:
Hurricane Imelda
Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by Wednesday evening, with tropical storm conditions likely by Wednesday afternoon.
Imelda is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph. A generally east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane will approach Bermuda Wednesday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane Humberto
Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda within outer rainbands today into Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast and Humberto is expected to become a strong extratropical system on Wednesday.
Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the United States over the next several days.
