FORECAST: Isolated t-storms Monday afternoon, Tropics getting busier

Hurricane Beryl June 30
Posted at 8:54 PM, Jun 30, 2024

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, 6-30-2024 and MONDAY, 7-1-2024

It has been a very stormy afternoon in Southwest Florida with flooding and even a waterspout in Estero Bay.

Tonight the skies the will clear with temperatures dropping into mid 70s.

Monday will start dry as we warm into the low 90s, although will feel like 100° thanks to the humidity. Showers and thunderstorms will fire up around 2pm, mostly inland. Storms on Monday look for isolated, but can't rule out locally strong storms and heavy downpours.

The rest of the week temperatures will remain in the low 90s with afternoon showers and thunderstorms.


Beryl is currently a category 4 major hurricane on Sunday about 200 miles southeast of Barbados. That makes Beryl to earliest Atlantic Category 4 on record.

Hurricane Warning is in place for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Martinique and Trinidad.
Tropical Storm Watch is in place for Dominica and the south coast of Hispaniola

Only 2 hurricanes on record (since 1851) have been within 100 miles of Barbados prior to August 1: Emily in 2005 and Elsa is 2021.

Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph. A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday.

Data from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.


Tropical Depression 3 formed on Sunday in the Bay of Campeche making it the third tropical system of the year. TD3 is currently located 145 southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this general motion should continue until it dissipates over eastern Mexico late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast later tonight. The system is expected to weaken and dissipate after it moves inland over eastern Mexico.

The next named storm will be Chris.


1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 96L):

To the east of Hurricane Beryl, Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...near 40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


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