FORECAST: Tropical system likely to develop in the Atlantic this weekend

Plus, heads up for afternoon downpours impacting weekend plans
Posted at 7:28 AM, Jun 27, 2024

Here is your forecast for Thursday, June 27th 2024.

The current weather pattern is producing a light onshore west-southwest flow over SWFL and will continue through tomorrow. This means the morning will be partly cloudy and mainly dry.

Increasing heat and humidity will help to fuel showers and storms midday near I-75, moving inland through the afternoon and evening. The evening will feature storms closer to Lake Okeechobee, while the coastline and areas along and west of I-75 stay dry.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, the earlier in the day the better to avoid storms.

Winds on Saturday will begin shifting and becoming more easterly. This means, dry and warm mornings with developing showers and storms inland midday, heading toward the Southwest Florida coastline each afternoon and evening. Pockets of heavy rain and lightning will remain our biggest threats each afternoon and evening this weekend.

Temperatures Friday through the weekend stay hot in the lower 90s with a feels like temperatures between 100-105°.


The NHC is monitoring two waves of energy.

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is producing widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Some development of this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. It may bring heavy rainfall to Mexico and parts of Central America but will not threaten Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95): A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. It will be encountering Saharan dust as it moves westward, which should limit its intensity somewhat crossing into the Caribbean Sea. Based upon long range data, it appears to be a concern for central America and not the U.S. Of course, we’ll monitor this closely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

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