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FORECAST: Tracking the tropics and a breezy start to the workweek

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is likely to become "Alberto" in the morning. A separate tropical wave will increase our rain chances mid to late week.
Posted at 8:08 AM, Jun 17, 2024

Here is your forecast for Monday, June 17th, 2024.

Overnight stays a little breezy with gusts to 21 mph with passing clouds and lows back in the mid to upper 70s. Tomorrow we should stay fairly dry again with just a 20% chance of a passing shower in the afternoon. It will stay breezy with gusts to 25 mph through Thursday.

Looking ahead to later in the week, all eyes are on the tropics as a disturbance starts to approach the Southeast U.S. in the Atlantic. Right now, it looks like this is nothing more than a rain maker for the state with the heaviest amounts currently expected for central and northern Florida. You can read more about this area below in the tropical outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

The National Hurricane Center is watching several areas for development.

The first is Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located in the Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan. It is likely to become Tropical Storm Alberto in the morning.

It will not pose a threat to the Florida but will bring several more days of heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of Texas starting Tuesday with totals of 8-12" expected and moderate coastal flooding along Texas' Gulf Coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Tropical Outlook
The latest Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center

In the same area as Potential Tropical Cyclone One, another low is forecast to develop this weekend and holds a 20% chance of further formation.

The final area, that will increase rain chances across Florida, is situated several hundred miles east of the Bahamas in the Atlantic, associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.

As it nears FL, moisture driven by strong easterly winds will be transported into SWFL, increasing rain chances mid to late week.

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