Waking up to temperatures in the upper 70s this morning with calm winds. The radar is dry this morning with just a few showers out over the Gulf of Mexico moving away from the coast. Today will be hot and humid with highs in the low mid 90s with an SE breeze 5-10 mph and a 60% chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. Overnight those few showers and storms come to an end with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
An upper level low will move over the state in the days ahead and that will bring an increased chance of rain starting Thursday. The flow behind this upper level low will keep an east wind and that will keep the sea breeze near the coast Friday into the weekend which will enhance thunderstorm development near the coast keeping the rain chances high.
The tropics are heating up as we head toward the end of the month. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas.
The first is a trough of low pressure that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected during the next day or two due to marginally conducive ocean temperatures and strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 10 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is medium at 50 percent.
The second is a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is medium at 60 percent.
The third is another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located about 500 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit better organized tonight, and some additional development is possible over the next several days while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is medium at 40 percent.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
If you don't already have our Fox 4 mobile app, you can download it here.