Closely watching Invest 92L, likely affects SWFL regardless of development

Posted at 8:46 PM, Aug 20, 2017
and last updated 2017-08-21 07:31:47-04

Could Invest 92L still develop? Well, for several days we've been watching and waiting...and waiting...and waiting to see if Invest 92L overcomes it's hostile environment to develop into a depression or Tropical Storm Irma.

Thankfully, that hasn't happened due to strong wind shear and dry air which has helped to keep the area under control as of yet.

As of Sunday, Invest 92L remains an invest, or an area of disturbed weather the Hurricane Center is actively investigating for potential tropical development.

But here's the deal on 92L. While we're glad the tropical wave likely won't make landfall as a tropical storm in Florida, the system will likely still be impactful to the state.

For several days now, reliable models have had their eyes set on Florida as the trajectory of the system and that hasn't changed - and likely won't.

So here's what to expect as Invest 92L pays us a visit this week.

  • We will experience wetter than normal weather: As tropical moisture associated with the system stalls over the state, we can expect to see several days of mostly cloudy skies and chances for heavy rainfall beginning Tuesday and lasting through at least Friday.
  • 92L won't bring tropical storm conditions: We are not expecting to see tropical storm force winds with this wave. Rather, this system will be an efficient rainmaker, bringing pesky off and on showers and storms during the morning and afternoon hours for the second half of the week.
  • Heavy rain and flooding is possible: While we won't see significant winds outside of gusty thunderstorms, heavy rain and localized flooding look to be the greatest threats as some models are estimating we could see 2-4 inches of rain by the end of the week. The highest totals look to be on the east coast of Florida and inland, with the west coast and beaches seeing the least rainfall.
  • Heat takes a back seat: With mostly cloudy conditions expected for the second half of the week, highs will only reach the upper 80s and low 90s, which means heat index values will tend to stay shy of 100 degrees. 
  • Invest 92L could still develop: While unlikely at this point, the National Hurricane Center is giving the area of low pressure a 40% that it develops into a named storm over the next 5 days. This is because while conditions are unfavorable now, conditions may become "a little more conducive for development" sometime during the middle of the week when the low is near the Bahamas and the state of Florida. Again, a tropical storm is the worst case scenario and is unlikely at this point. We will keep you posted on air and online.