Invest 99L Remains Weak; Minimal Impacts to SWFL

Posted at 9:03 AM, Aug 28, 2016
and last updated 2016-08-28 09:15:02-04
We continue to track Invest 99L which is now moving through the Florida Straits. Showers and thunderstorms in association with the system have increased since Saturday afternoon indicating it has tried organizing. However, wind shear continues to prevent the storm from strengthening and it will likely continue through the day today. This means the only chance this storm has to organize is once it gets into the Gulf early this week. It is then that it will make a quick swing to the northeast toward the areas around Tampa Bay and points northward toward the eastern Panhandle. NHC has a 40% chance of development in 2 days and 60% chance in 5, which are higher chances than they were yesterday.
Other than an increase in showers and storms across the area for the next few days, I really don't anticipate any significant impacts in SWFL regardless of whether it strengthens. Rainfall totals of 3-5" will be possible through mid-week on an isolated basis as the storms that do occur will be efficient rain-producers. Given the fact that we will be on the east side of whatever develops through at least mid-week, tropical moisture will continue streaming into the area, giving the storms a little extra juice each day. This will lead to locally heavy downpours and the threat for localized flash flooding with any repeated rounds of storms that you see through Wednesday. Marine areas also will see an increase in seas especially past 20 nmi through mid-week.