Conditions in the tropics are getting busy as we head into the end of August. In addition to Hurricane Gert which continues its track through the Atlantic, three new tropical waves are emerging off the coast of Africa with the potential for tropical development over the next 5 days.
The first is Invest 91-L, the wave furthest west currently with a 40% chance for tropical development. Right now it is an area of low pressure moving west around 20mph, expected to head into the Caribbean over the next day or two with the possible for slow development as it heads into a more conducive environment with less wind shear. Current forecast models are taking it due west, a similar track to Franklin, and potentially heading for the Yucatan peninsula. It does not look to be an immediate threat to the U.S.
The next area we're watching is Invest 92-L, also tracking west-northwest around 20mph. Conditions will aid development over the next couple days, but wind shear over the mid-Atlantic could keep this area from intensifying further. Forecast models currently have low-confidence in the long range forecast, but again this does not look to be an immediate threat to the U.S.
The third and newest wave is currently the furthest east, but it also has a 40% chance of gradual development over the next 5 days with conditions in the Main Development Region expected to be conducive for the slow development. It is currently tracking west-northwest as well, but it is too early to tell where we expect the potential threat to be.
Hurricane Gert currently has 90 mph winds while moving through the Atlantic, parallel to the U.S. coastline. The track will continue to take Gert away from the U.S. with the only impacts being rough seas and the potential for rip currents along the east coast from North Carolina up through Massachusetts.
The busy conditions come as no surprise as we head into late summer. August and September are typically the peak months for activity in the tropics, and this year seems to be no different.