THE WEEK AHEAD: Rain Chances Going Up, Tracking the Tropics

Posted at 10:34 PM, Aug 21, 2016
and last updated 2016-08-21 22:34:00-04


Monday will be marked by more hot and humid weather with the possibility of a few isolated showers and storms throughout the day, similar to what we've been seeing the past few days. Daytime highs in the low to mid 90s will feel like 100+ with humidity factored in. Rain chances look to be relatively low, at around 30% with the best chances earlier in the day close to the coast. Coverage will increase inland by the late afternoon and evening hours. 


Little change in our weather is expected through Tuesday. By Wednesday, our weather will become more unsettled across Southwest Florida. As an easterly flow sets up and deeper moisture moves into the region, we will note increasing rain chances area-wide. Each day through the weekend, expect mostly sunny skies to sponsor hot conditions during the afternoon and at least the chance for a shower or storm.


The Fox 4 Storm Shield Weather Team is monitoring three areas of interest in the Atlantic Ocean.

The only one with a name is Tropical Storm Fiona. This 40 mph system is traveling NW at 17 mph. The system has maintained itself over the last 24 hours but is expected to gradually weaken in the coming days as it battles through strong wind shear and dry air - factors that create an unfavorable environment for strengthening. The National Hurricane Center projects that Fiona will weaken to a tropical depression by Monday, then becoming a remnant low later this week. Fiona will have no impact on our weather.

Second, there's Invest 99L which is about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. While this tropical wave looked more interesting the past few days, it has encountered dry air aloft which will work against its development over the coming days. It's moving NW at 15 to 20 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 40% chance of developing into a named storm over the next 5 days.

The third tropical wave is closest to the western coast of Africa right now and is more promising. Given the name Invest 90L, this wave is expected to encounter favorable conditions for development as it tracks westward and northwestward in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center projects a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days.

It is still too soon to determine whether Invest 99L or 90L will have an impact on our weather or not.

However, we can say with confidence that the tropics will not have any influence on our weather this week.