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Low-end threat for severe storms overnight & early Tuesday

Severe Weather Risk
Posted at 1:48 PM, Feb 15, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-15 18:29:33-05

There is a low-end threat for a couple of severe storms overnight….mainly after 2 AM through mid-morning Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region tonight into early Tuesday with a chance for a few showers and storms along the front. The most favorable conditions for severe storms will remain north of our area across the Panhandle and areas north of I-4. Storms will move out of the area by mid to late morning Tuesday.

TIMING:

Updated timeline has storms moving into the area as early as 11 PM Monday night with the best chances after midnight through 6 AM Tuesday.

THREATS:

Tornado Threat: Very low threat and likely restricted to isolated storms moving in from the Gulf with weak rotation and possible waterspouts that could move onshore. Low level wind shear will be weakening through the night, so the overall threat for any tornadic storms is very low.

Wind threat: Low, but some storms may produce brief 40 mph+ wind gusts, especially with any line segments that develop and push toward the east.

Heavy Rain: A quick inch, similar to what we saw overnight Saturday into Sunday morning not out of the realm of possibilities. Flooding is not expected.

TAKEAWAY: The threat for severe weather overnight is very Low. A couple of strong storms are possible, but the ingredients needed for a more substantial threat for severe weather will NOT exist across SWFL as the storms move through our area. Therefore, only an isolated threat for a strong or severe storm is expected. We will be monitoring the situation through the entire night and will update you on the latest. Informative, but without the hype.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY