UPDATE 10/19/19 5 PM
Nestor weakened a bit to a 40 mph storm now that it is over land in the panhandle of Florida. It's moving to the northeast at 23 mph. Most of the rain has moved through SWFL with breezy conditions expected through this evening.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10/19/19 2 PM
Nestor has picked up forward speed and is now moving ENE at 23 mph as the maximum wind speed has weakened to 45 mph. Nestor is currently making landfall in the panhandle and is expected to continue moving toward the NE quickly over the next couple of days over Georgia and the Carolina's through tomorrow. Areas of rain and wind are expected in SWFL through this evening.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10/19/19 12 PM
The tornado watch for SWFL has been allowed to expire. Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are still likely today with windy conditions across our area.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10/19/19 11 AM
Nestor has made the transition to a post tropical cyclone as it nears Florida's northern coast. It is still packing a maximum wind speed of 50 mph as it moves a bit slower to the east and northeast at around 9 mph. No further strengthening is expected with Nestor and the worst is over for SWFL. We can still expect periods of heavy rain with windy conditions and possible thunderstorms through this afternoon with an additional half to one inch of rain possible. Isolated tornadoes are not out of the question as a tornado watch remains in effect for parts of SWFL through noon today.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10/19/19 8 AM
Nestor still has winds of 50...getting closer to landfall.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/19/19 5 AM
Nestor has weakened overnight and now has winds around 50 mph. The storm is gradually losing its tropical characteristics and will become a regular low pressure by Sunday as it moves quickly into the Carolinas. Locally heavy rainfall, storm surge along the Nature Coast and a tornado threat will continue though today across central and north Florida.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/18/19 11 PM
Tropical Storm Nestor's winds remain at 60 mph. Several tornadoes have been reported in and around the Tampa Bay area tonight. Landfall is expected around 7-8 am EDT Saturday morning as a strong tropical storm. The storm will quickly transition to an extra tropical cyclone and rapidly move across the GA and the Carolinas through Sunday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/18/19 5 PM
Tropical Storm Nestor remains on a northeast heading toward the FL Panhandle. Landfall is expected late tonight or early Saturday near Panama City Beach then the storm will move inland quickly into south Georgia Saturday then the Carolinas on Sunday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/18/19 2 PM
Tropical Storm Nestor has officially formed and is racing toward the FL Panhandle coast. Winds remain at 60 mph. All hazards remain the same, with storm surge, wind, rain and isolated tornadoes expected across north Florida tonight through early Saturday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/18/19 11 AM
PTC 16 has strengthened with winds of 60 mph. The storm still isn't a tropical cyclone yet due to a lack of a low level center. It is expected to become either subtropical or tropical later today as it rapidly approaches the Florida Panhandle coast. Large storm surge is expected for the Florida Big Bend to portions of the Panhandle with winds well over tropical storm force in many areas. Isolated tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall will be an issue as well. The storm is not expected to produce flooding due to its fast movement. We could see some storms here later Saturday as it lifts into Georgia as the tail end of the moisture hangs out in our area. Next update will be at 5 PM.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/18/19 8AM
Potential tropical cyclone 16 is in the central Gulf of Mexico and its wind hasn't changed. The maximum sustained wind with this system is 40 mph gusting to 50. It is now moving a bit faster to the northeast compared to a few hours ago. It's speed is now 21 mph. Now this system does have wind over tropical storm force, but no center of circulation can be found with this system therefore a tropical storm can not be named. This is expected to change however later today where Tropical Storm Nestor could be named. Either way we will feel some impacts here in SWFL. Wind speed of 15-25 mph and gusts between 25-35 mph are in the forecast Saturday as well as periods of heavy rain and storms. We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches Florida's northern coast.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 10/18/19 5AM
Potential tropical cyclone 16 is in the central Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph gusting to 50. It is moving to the northeast at 14 mph. Now this system does have wind over tropical storm force, but no center of circulation can be found with this system therefore a tropical storm can not be named. This is expected to change however later today where Tropical Storm Nestor could be named. Either way we will feel some impacts here in SWFL. Wind speed of 15-25 mph and gusts between 25-35 mph are in the forecast Saturday as well as periods of heavy rain and storms. We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches Florida's northern coast.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/16/19 11 PM
No change in strength. Forecast track remains the same with landfall as a tropical storm on Saturday. Storm surge, wind, rain and isolated tornadoes expected to be threats, mainly for the panhandle and portions of north Florida.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/16/19 5 PM
NHC maintains PTC 16 for the 5PM advisory due to a lack of thunderstorms near the center to classify it as a tropical system. It is expected to acquire tropical characteristics at some point tonight or Friday before landfall, which is expected Saturday. Max winds are at 40 mph and gradual strengthening is expected as it moves northeast. Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended in Florida to the Aucilla River.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/16/19 11 AM
NHC has initiated advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 which is expected to move northeast toward the Florida Panhandle this weekend as Tropical Storm Nestor. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama/MS state line to Ochlockonee River in Florida and from Grand Isle LA to the mouth of the Pearl River along the MS/LA state line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown FL. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass to Clearwater. A storm surge of 3-5 ft. is expected along the Nature Coast. The worst of the weather will remain well north of our area, but with the system being quite broad and messy in nature, effects will be felt well away from the center. Showers and storms as well as gusty winds will be possible by Saturday across the region with improving weather Sunday as the storm quickly moves away. Heavy surf, as well as minimal storm surge will be possible from the Florida Big Bend to the Emerald Coast in the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall will reach 5-10" for portions of Alabama, Florida, Georgia into the Carolinas this weekend.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 10/17/19 8AM
A tropical wave in the form of a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has become better organized over the past several hours and could become a tropical depression later today or tonight. It is currently moving toward the northeast and is expected to keep that track through Saturday. This system could make landfall around the panhandle of Florida Saturday. Impacts here in SWFL will be felt mainly Saturday with periods of heavy rain and breezy conditions. We will continue to monitor the development of this system as we head into the weekend. Keep it tuned in to Fox 4 news for up to the minute updates.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/16/19 10 PM
Chances for development now up to 60%. System remains disorganized and messy and will likely remain that way through Thursday. Moisture will spread northeast toward the northern Gulf Friday into Saturday with the heaviest rain across areas north of I-4 into the Florida Panhandle.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/16/19 5 PM
NHC has increased the chance for development with this system up to 50% in 5 days asx of the 2PM Tropical Outlook. The latest computer model forecasts suggest that we could have either a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the western Gulf by later this week or this weekend. The Euro tracks it toward Pensacola while the GFS is a little more east toward Panama City. Regardless of development. Heavy rainfall will spread toward the nothern Gulf states by Friday and Saturday and into the Carolinas and Georgia by Sunday. Some of the rain will spread into western Florida by late Friday into Saturday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
FIRST UPDATE 8/15/19
As we get closer to the end of hurricane season, we focus our attention to the western Gulf for possible development later this week. A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has a medium chance for development in the next 5 days as it drifts northward through the western Gulf. Very warm water should aid in the possible development of this system, although conditions aren't ideal for explosive development. Most long range computer models keep the system weak as it interacts with a front draped across the southern U.S. Moisture from the system will interact with the front to spread locally heavy rainfall across portions of the northern Gulf Coast late this week into this weekend. The heaviest rain in Florida will remain north of I-4, spreading into the Carolinas Saturday into Sunday.
We will see little impact here in SWFL from this system. Some of the moisture could spread into our area, in association with the aforementioned front, but any locally heavy rainfall threat will stay well north of our area.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
