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Center of Josephine passing north of the Leeward Islands

Center of Josephine passing north of the Leeward Islands
Josephine
Posted at 8:47 PM, Aug 09, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-15 22:58:42-04

UPDATE 8/15/2020 11 PM

Josephine is barely a tropical storm with a low level circulation that is barely detectable. Wind shear will weaken Josephine into a depression or even a tropical wave in the next couple of days. There is no threat to the United States with this storm.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8/15/2020 5 PM

Josephine continues to move WNW at 17 mph with maximum sustained wind of 45 mph. Josephine is encountering strong westerly wind shear and is expected to turn to the north then northeast well away from the United States. The shear could weaken Josephine into a depression or even a tropical wave in the next couple of days.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8/15/2020 5 AM:

The center of Tropical Storm Josephine is located over 300 miles away from the Leeward Islands. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest well away from us here in Southwest Florida. Little change in strength is expected through today. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds out in the Atlantic.

UPDATE 8/14/2020 5 PM

Josephine will continue to struggle in a less than ideal environment through the weekend before turning north and eventually northeast away from the U.S. The conditions will eventually take their toll on Josephine and the storm will weaken/dissipate by early next week.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/14/2020 5 AM

Tropical Storm Josephine has weakened a bit and barely holds on to tropical storm status. Maximum sustained wind is now 40 mph as it continues to move to the WNW at 17 mph. Infrared satellite shows dry air and wind shear causing a more disorganized look to the system. Josephine will continue to move to the WNW before encountering a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This will cause the system to move northwest. By next week it will turn to the north and northeast and dissipate not impacting the United States at all. The next update will come out at 11 AM.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8/13/2020 11 PM

Josephine continues to move WNW across the Atlantic and will approach the Lesser Antilles this weekend. The storm will remain far enough north to where it won't be a problem for the islands. A north turn, then a turn northeast is expected before dissipating by early next week as it encounters moderate SW wind shear.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/13/2020 11 AM

Josephine finally forms, but is still battling dry air and wind shear despite the conditions improving some over the past 18 hours. Conditions will be favorable for strengthening for the next day or so before southwesterly shear takes its toll on the storm. The forecast track takes it west with a turn north near Puerto Rico away from the U.S. It will NOT be an eventual threat for our area.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/13/2020 5 AM

Tropical Depression 11 is moving to the WNW at 15 mph and is starting to become better organized after wind shear and dry air made the storm look ragged on infrared satellite. Wind shear is expected to decrease today which should allow the system to strengthen into Tropical Storm Josephine. It will move WNW, then NW before encountering a break in the subtropical ridge which will allow the system to move northward and northeastward as it encounters a trough. Once this happens early next week it is expected to weaken substantially and possibly dissipate. Either way this system will not impact the United States. The next update will come out at 11 AM.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8/12/2020 5 PM

No changes since this morning. Waiting for an upgrade to T.S. Josephine.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/12/2020 11 AM

TD 11 continues west. Could become Josephine soon but has a hostile environment waiting for it in the coming days. Still looks like it won't be a threat to the U.S.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/12/2020 5 AM

Tropical depression 11 has encountered dry air in the mid and upper levels and southeasterly wind shear so the depression doesn't look as organized as it did yesterday. Conditions will be favorable for further development later today and Thursday as wind shear decreases. Tropical Storm Josephine is expected to be named later this evening or early Thursday. This system is moving to the west and is expected to move to the northwest as a slight weakness develops along within a subtropical ridge to its north. Most long range models have this turning to the north and northeast or even dissipating next week. It doesn't look like this will be a threat to Florida.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8/11/2020 5 PM

No change from the 5 PM advisory. Still expected to become Josephine later in the week then move into an increasingly hostile environment of dry air and wind shear over the Caribbean. It still is NOT expected to be a threat to Florida.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/11/2020 5 PM

NHC upgrades the Invest to a Tropical Depression...#11. The storm will track west toward the Lesser Antilles and as it does so could become a Tropical Storm named Josephine. Our thinking has not changed and it does NOT look like it is a threat to Florida. Will continue to monitor in the coming days.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/11/2020 10 AM

NHC giving Invest 95L a HIGH chance for development and we are likely going to have a new depression later today. We still don't expect this storm to be an eventual problem for us with hostile conditions ahead in the Atlantic that will likely eventually kill it off. We will continue to monitor it as it develops.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

UPDATE 8/11/2020 8 AM

Invest 95L continues to show signs of organization and better defined center of circulation is forming. This wave is located about 900 miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression will form later today if these development trends continue. This system is moving to the WNW at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Later this weekend conditions will become less conducive for development, but before then Tropical Storm Josephine could form. All forecast models take this system north of Hispanola and well to the east of the United States as this wave is expected to move north and northeastward out to sea in the coming days.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8/11/2020 2 AM

Invest 95L is still producing showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern Atlantic and continues to become better organized. There is little wind shear in the vicinity of this wave and convection looks symmetric on infrared satellite. It has maximum sustained wind of 35 mph, but no well defined center of circulation. I think this will change later today or early tomorrow and a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Josephine could form. Right now Invest 95L is moving to the west, but later in the week conditions will become less conducive for development as it is forecast to curve to the north and northeast out to sea.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

UPDATE 8/9/2020 10 AM

Tropical wave near 35° W has a MEDIUM chance for development. We will probably see a depression form from this later this week, but conditions ahead of it are hostile and will likely NOT support further development as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Dry air and a little bit of shear continue to plague the tropical Atlantic (a good thing), so we don't anticipate this being a problem down the road.

FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY

FIRST UPDATE 8/9/2020 8 PM

A tropical wave emerged off the African coast a couple days ago. Right now showers and thunderstorms associated with this wave are located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave is moving to the west at 15 mph across warm tropical Atlantic water. It has become better organized over the past 12 hours, but the circulation remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next few days. A tropical depression could form later this week.

FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE

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