NOAA released their forecast for the upcoming hurricane season on Thursday, May 20th. The official forecast is for another active season with 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.
NOAA's Atlantic #HurricaneSeason Outlook 2021:— NOAA (@NOAA) May 20, 2021
Here are the numbers ...
Forecasters predict a 70% likelihood of 13-20 named storms of which 6-10 could become hurricanes -- including 3-5 major hurricanes
News release & infographics at: https://t.co/IhVOUXH6jH @NWS @NWSCPC pic.twitter.com/q0CkRXxUau
The primary reason for the active season according to NOAA will be ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) recently going into the neutral phase, which means water temps are neither colder nor warmer than average. This translates to low wind shear conditions continuing across the Atlantic Basin. ENSO Neutral and La Nina conditions in the Pacific support heightened activity in the tropical Atlantic.
Furthermore, above-average water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Atlantic and Caribbean, weaker Atlantic trade winds and the enhanced west African Monsoon will likely be factors that will contribute to the overall activity.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY