Wet weather, tropical activity developing in the Gulf
All eyes will be focused on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, as many scenarios could play out. However, all of them point to the same conclusion, wet weather for Southwest Florida.
At this point, there is a wide range of possibilities on what the tropical Atlantic's next move may be starting this weekend.
One scenario slowly develops a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend then takes it across Florida and over Carolina waters into early next week.
This is but one of multiple scenarios for Atlantic basin tropical activity into next week.
Such a track would bring torrential rain to parts of the Florida Peninsula and could bring a day or two of rough surf and poor beach weather from Florida to the Carolinas for starters.
Even if the system remains weak and disorganized, downpours will continue to affect the southern half of the Florida Peninsula into the weekend.
Another possibility is the budding tropical system moves northward to a certain point in the Gulf of Mexico then turns around and wanders west-southwestward. Essentially, the system would "miss the train" in this case.
Steering winds are very light in the tropics at this time. While this favors development to some extent, a weak system could wander just about anywhere over the next few days.
If the system were to drift far enough to the north, an upcoming dip in steering winds is likely to scoop up the system. These winds could pull the system up along part of the East Coast of the U.S. for a time. However, in this scenario, disruptive wind shear would come into play mitigating the storm's strength.
Right now, there is just a broad area of weak low pressure in the region.
A system could spin up just about anywhere in the western Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.